Prison population keeps declining

DES MOINES – Iowa's prison population is on the decline and the aging of baby boomers may be aiding that trend.

The number of convicted criminals housed in the state's prison system hit 8,458 on Monday, marking the lowest inmate count since the overall population hit a record 8,840 on Oct. 3, 2007, according to state officials.

Monday's figure also marked a low for female inmates of 670, whose numbers had climbed to a record 798 on May 6, 2007, said Lettie Prell of the Iowa Department of Corrections.

By contrast, Iowa's overall prison population stood at 8,740 one year ago and 8,806 on July 1, 2007.

“It's been going down for the last several months,” said Paul Stageberg, administrator of the state Department of Human Rights division of criminal and juvenile justice planning. “In fact, the forecast called for the population to be a little lower now than it actually is. It's not unexpected.”

Stageberg attributed the decline to a pattern of decreasing prison admissions, with fewer new court convictions pointing to a significant drop in drug-related convictions, fewer crimes being committed, fewer arrests being made or felony charges being reduced via plea bargains on lesser offenses.

Through March, new direct commitments to prison were down 7.7 percent in fiscal 2009 compared to the previous year, he said. Similarly, that figure was down 5 percent in March 2008 and down 7.5 percent in March 2007.

Prell said Iowa's tough laws targeting methamphetamine production has resulted in a nose dive in felony drug convictions.

“Drug crime was the No.1 reason for new prison admissions for many years and methamphetamine was a large feeder in more recent years of that increase of drug offenders being admitted into prison,” she said.

Another factor may reside in Iowa's demographics, with the baby-boom generation of criminals getting older – no longer part of the 18-25 age group with the highest rate of prison admissions -- and less likely to re-offend for crimes that would return them to prison, Stageberg said.

“As people get older, even if they've been involved in criminal activity at younger ages, they tend to burn out over time,” he said. “The older the cohort, the less likely they are to become reinvolved in the system.

“The big increase you saw in crime back in the ‘60s, a lot of that was simply due to the baby boom – a large group of people entering the most crime prone years results in an increase in crime,” Stageberg added.

Long-range forecasts call for the state's prison population to be around 8,900 in fiscal 2018 – projecting a relatively stable period in part because criminals convicted of violent crimes are required to serve at least 70 percent or longer of their sentences under Iowa law.

Prell said the tougher sentencing standards will mean Iowa's prison population will get increasingly older with expectations that inmate health care costs also will rise significantly over time.

At the same time, Iowa's prison overcrowding problem has shrunk with the system currently housing an inmate population about 14 percent over design capacity -- a level Prell called manageable with the current staffing levels.

“Based on the numbers at this point, the need for numerous additional prisons that may have been forecast 10 years ago seems to have disappeared,” Stageberg added. “I think the state is in good shape as far as having to build new beds to house new inmates.”