2010 caucus move to Saturday may be precursor to 2012

CEDAR RAPIDS – In a move state party leaders say is “good for Democrats, good for Republicans, and good our political process,” the Iowa precinct caucuses will be moved to Saturday afternoon in 2010.

Christopher C. Hull

The parties will break from their tradition of weeknight caucuses to lay the groundwork for the 2010 state, county and federal elections at 1 p.m. Jan. 23.

Although the decision is for only 2010, there's speculation it sets the stage for a Saturday afternoon presidential-year caucuses in 2012 when turnout will be expected to be much greater than the off-year caucuses next winter.

“We'll have to see if it's successful,” GOP spokeswoman Danielle Plogmann said.

“Obviously discussions will be held as we look forward to 2012,” said Democratic Party spokesman Norm Sterzenbach.

Caucuses in non-presidential election years can be “snoozers,” Linn County Republican Chairman Tim Palmer of Cedar Rapids said, but he senses there's a great deal of anticipation for both 2010 and 2012 elections.

Tim Palmer

Dennis Roseman

That may make it hard for either party to get solid feel for whether the move is successful, according to former Iowan Christopher C. Hull, now an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and author of “Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents. He recalled that in 1998 three people attended his Des Moines precinct caucus. In 2000, 80 attended.

“So the numbers are astronomically different” from off-year caucus to a presidential election-year caucus, Hull. “I don't believe that you are necessarily going to learn all that much, but still, it seems to be a positive step forward.

The off-year caucus seems to be a good time to make the change, said Dennis Roseman of Iowa City, the Johnson County Democratic Party chairman. He hopes it will attract working people who can't attend the weeknight caucuses. Plus, Roseman said the daylight caucuses may “create a little more buzz, a little more attention.”

That seems to be what the state parties had in mind. In a joint statement Tuesday, Democratic Chairman Mike Kiernan and GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said the decision “was made to encourage greater participation in an off-year caucus and get more Iowans actively involved with the work of our parties.”

Republicans may have an advantage in that regard because the party will be in the process of picking a challenger to Democratic Gov. Chet Culver who will seek re-election in 2010, Palmer said. It's likely Republicans looking to run against President Barack Obama will be working to turn out supporters at the 2010 caucuses, he added.

David Redlawsk, who was both a caucus participant and observer while teaching political science at the University of Iowa, agrees the 

David Redlawsk

move at least gives the appearance the parties are responding to complaints about accessibility.

“I don't know that it will make much difference in the real world,” said Redlawsk, now professor of political science and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. “It will improve perception, but some people work on Saturday.”

He doesn't see a downside to anything that potentially opens up the caucuses to more participants.

Roseman and Palmer expect it may make it harder to find locations for the caucuses. The parties rely heavily on schools, but some schools are not open on weekends and often there is a cost to have a janitor on duty, they said.

“Most likely there will be more conflicts, but that's my problem,” Roseman said.