Iowa index of economic indicators falls again

DES MOINES - Iowa's economic indicators fell 1.1 percent in March, the twelfth straight month of declines, figures released Friday showed.The Iowa Leading Indicators Index showed weakness across the board but some glimmers of hope behind the scenes, said Amy Harris, an analyst with the Iowa Department of Revenue.

New building permits in March were double what they were in February, although 39.4 percent lower than they were the same time a year ago.

A measure of new orders also was up but still below a year ago and had not jumped enough to signal an expansion in Iowa's manufacturing sector.

Harris said it is still hard to say when Iowa's economy might emerge from the recession.

"Until we see a broader recovery across these different components ... it's too early to say that the whole economy's going to start turning around," Harris said

A weak stock market index of Iowa-based companies was a factor in the overall index's decline. Only nine of the 35 companies on the index gained value in March, and just three of the 13 financial companies saw gains.

Iowa's unemployment rate also continued to rise in March and drag down the state's economy. The weekly average unemployment claims were up 191 percent over March 2008.

"Iowa's not any different than the rest of the country in that respect," Harris said.

The only positive indicator was an increase in the yield spread, the difference between the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury notes.

Much of that is attributed to federal government actions to keep interest rates down.

"It's a positive contributor, but it's not necessarily a positive sign that the economy itself is recovering," Harris said.

The index is used to predict future economic activity in Iowa.