It still is Hillary Clinton’s race to lose

As we rumble toward the 2016 Iowa caucuses one thing is certain. We are obsessed with polls.

Once upon a time, presidential campaigns unfolded without polls. Contenders such as Abraham Lincoln and FDR debated, gave 'whistle stop” speeches from the back platforms of trains, and wrote essays about their solutions to the nation's problems. Now almost every day a new poll comes out telling us who's ahead, who's trusted, who's slipping.

Two polling environments are of special interest.

On the Democratic side we are watching the fortunes of Hillary Clinton and her three or four opponents. Clinton still is the runaway front-runner with money, organization, lots of staff, 100 percent name recognition and good poll numbers.

The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll found that in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania over 50 percent of voters say she's not trustworthy. That should worry the Clinton team since trustworthiness is the top issue with voters in all three important swing states.

In her latest interview, Clinton blames Republicans for smearing her reputation. It is a fact that for at least eight years the GOP has been attacking Hillary Clinton and pounding her about the Benghazi, Libya attack on the US consulate. Once someone says, 'When did you stop kicking your dog?” it's almost impossible to erase the claim that you've done wrong.

A second worry for Clinton is the potential threat from her Democratic competitors. the New York Times said, 'The ample crowds and unexpectedly strong showing garnered by Senator Bernie Sanders are setting off worry among advisers and allies of Hillary Clinton, who believe the Vermont senator could overtake her in Iowa polls by the fall and even defeat her in the nation's first nominating contest there.”

I have seen those enthusiastic crowds at several Iowa events and can attest to the fact that she should worry. Moreover, her poll numbers in Iowa are moving in the wrong direction. In May, Clinton had 60 percent and Bernie Sanders's 15 percent. As I write this the same poll shows Clinton at 52 percent, Sanders at 33 percent. If she drops below 50 percent the alarm bells will really go off.

If Clinton loses in Iowa but wins the New Hampshire primary bad karma will ensue. My media friends are already cuing up their 'Repeat of 2008” story when Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses, Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary a week later. That contest turned into a marathon that went through all 50 states, Guam and Puerto Rico before Obama gathered a majority of delegates and won the Democratic nomination.

A repeat of the Iowa/New Hampshire scenario is the last thing the Clinton campaign wants to see.

Clinton stealth-supporters in Iowa, in the guise of being dispassionate observers, are saying that Bernie Sanders is the Howard Dean of 2016. Former Vermont Governor Dean, of course, was enthusiastically supported by progressive voters in 2004 only to slip and see Senator John Kerry win the caucuses. Dean came in third after John Edwards.

It appears that Clinton's decision to do a 'slow rollout” for her campaign with an Iowa 'listening tour” of tiny groups of mostly hand-picked people was a huge mistake. She missed the opportunity to 'close the deal” with Iowa Democrats who felt ignored by her - I know because I talked to hundreds - and wow the media with huge enthusiastic crowds. The black SUV ride to Iowa, the Secret Service protection, her avoiding reporters also seemed sneaky, secretive and even 'sinister” as several people told me.

Now Sanders is getting all the buzz with his huge and fired up supporters.

As I write this it still is Clinton's race to lose. She has all the assets and visibility to be the winner. But she needs to connect better with caucus goers and improve her trustworthiness.

In my next column I'll write about the Republican presidential candidate poll numbers and what they mean.

' Steffen Schmidt is professor of political science at Iowa State University. Comments: Steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com