Paris attack will be felt the world over, even in U.S. presidential politics

The Paris massacre is a game changer for the Iowa caucuses and the 2016 US presidential elections. It is an example of what I have always told the news media - in politics 24 hours is a lifetime.

One of my focus group analysts texted me hours after the tragedy, 'Cut the US federal budget? REALLY! And how the hell does the United States 'arm up” and defend the democratic western world?” 

My focus group also concluded that Rand Paul is finished. So is Bernie Sanders. Their positions on defense are no longer relevant.

The campaign priorities have just totally changed. All the issues will be inverted. 

The Des Moines Democratic candidate debate had to pivot from economic issues to the new enhanced threat from ISIS and other terrorist groups.

Who will benefit?

Hillary Clinton could benefit because as Secretary of State and as a Senator she has had extensive foreign policy experience. On the other hand her lack of quick action in response to the terrorist attack on the US consulate in Benghazi and her e-mail problems may continue to be relevant or become even more salient.

On the Republican side it will likely be one of the 'hawks.” 

It may be someone with actual government experience.

This is the end of the 'circus.”  US presidential elections are not a clown act. They are also not a sermon.

One theory is that it will be bad for Carson, Fiorina, and Trump because they are the outsiders and have no government experience.

Another theory is that the issue of illegal immigration will actually be enhanced even more because the Paris terrorists are likely ISIS connected, Syrians and thus 'immigrants” That means Trump in particular could benefit since he's articulated the most visible and hard line on border security. Ben Carson immediately issued a statement saying he opposes allowing ANY Syrian refugees into the United States.

In states such as Texas and Arizona, border security and illegal immigration is a huge political issue.

One focus group member suggested that Senator Lindsey Graham who has the greatest foreign policy experience as a result of his Senate responsibilities could suddenly surge in polls and might become a real contender. His biography read, 'Lindsey Graham has earned a reputation as a conservative problem-solver and one of the strongest proponents of a robust national defense. A frequent visitor to American troops stationed overseas for on-the-ground assessments, Graham has consistently pushed for outcomes in the War on Terror, which protect our long-term national security interests. One leading conservative recently wrote that when it comes to defending America, '[Lindsey] Graham has been right about more things on foreign policy for longer than just about anyone…if anyone has bragging rights on foreign policy, it is Graham.”

Clearly no one wants to turn over the nation, lives, and the security of families to leadership with little or no foreign policy experience in the United States.

Issues such as income inequality, gay marriage, cutting taxes, shrinking the federal government, LGBT rights, Black Lives Matter, and climate change will no doubt recede and yield to defense and security.

The trajectory of the 2016 race has just dramatically changed.