A closer look at Saturday’s Iowa State-Oklahoma State football game

What’s a stake Saturday when Iowa State travels to Stillwater, Okla., for a Big 12 football battle with Oklahoma State.

Bowl positioning for the Cyclones, virtually nothing for the Cowboys.

ISU’s been to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl twice already in the Matt Campbell era, and it’s played in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando three times in the past six years. There’s no question the Cyclones would prefer a trip to, say, the Rate Bowl in Phoenix a day after Christmas over return visits to those overly-familiar haunts

A win would certainly boost ISU’s bargaining power to that end, while a loss would obviously diminish it.

THREE KEYS TO VICTORY

Turn it up

Oklahoma State ranks 15th in the 16-team Big 12 in turnover margin at minus-0.36 per game and turned it over five times in a 14-6 loss to Kansas State two weeks ago.

The Cowboys have lost the turnover battle in six of the past seven games — the lone outlier being their most recent loss, a dispiriting, 17-14, setback to UCF. Iowa State, meanwhile, has been on the plus-side of the turnover ledger in the past three games after coughing up four in the 41-27 home loss to No. 11 BYU.

The Cyclones rank fifth in the conference in turnover margin at plus-0.27 per game and are 43-11 under head Campbell when winning in that key area. In short, turnovers can be the equalizer in a mismatch like this one, and if ISU gives one away early, expect this to be a tight game for all four quarters. If the Cyclones don’t do that — and/ take the ball away early themselves — expect a comfortable win.

Quick strike, strong finish

A fast start doesn’t guarantee success for ISU, but a strong first-half performance generally does. The Cyclones are 52-8 under Campbell — and 6-2 this season — when holding a halftime lead, so it’s imperative the offense in particular is humming from the opening snap in order to put scoreboard pressure on the Cowboys, who are staring at a possible second straight season marked by zero wins in Big 12 play.

Oklahoma State has trailed by double digits at halftime in six of its seven losses by 17 points out greater, so quashing any hopes the team harbors will be critical for ISU. The longer the Cowboys hang around, the harder it will be to ensure the Cyclones leave Stillwater with a win — and ensure a winning season in conference play for the eighth time in the past nine seasons.

Make ground control a major factor

ISU’s top tailbacks, juniors Carson Hansen and Abu Sama, have quietly inched into the program’s top 20 in terms of career rushing yards. Sama ranks 18th with 1,846 yards. Hansen’s currently 20th at 1,660

Hansen also is averaging 5.2 yards per carry while amassing a team-best 841 rushing yards this season, and has topped the 100-yard plateau in four straight games. So expect plenty of Hansen and Sama runs early behind an experienced and solid offensive line to help quarterback Rocco Becht find his rhythm in the passing game.

The Cyclones are 6-2 this season when outgunning their opponent on the ground, and 7-2 when holding their foe to less than 200 rushing yards. Last week’s win over Kansas should serve as a blueprint for this one. ISU possessed the ball nearly twice as long as the Jayhawks, and combined 221 rushing yards with 241 passing yards to produce a lopsided 38-14 victory.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, ranks 14th in the conference in rushing at 126.6 yards per game, so neutralizing running back Rodney Fields Jr. should be a top priority for the Cyclones — along with establishing their own run game.

PREDICTION

One might say the Cowboys are “due” after two straight one-score losses that extended their 17-game skid in Big 12 play. One would be wrong — unless the Cyclones play very poorly in Stillwater.

ISU is simply the decidedly better team, regardless of any positive vibes created by the hiring of a new permanent head coach of the Cowboys, along with senior day festivities. Still, Oklahoma State’s just two seasons removed from an appearance in the Big 12 title game, so pride will be a major motivator for the home team as a two-touchdown underdog.

Iowa State 31, Oklahoma State 13