Misleading: Miller-Meeks’ federal shutdown narrative is false

Guest Column | Ed Tibbetts

A month ago, Republicans launched a rebrand of their mammoth plan to cut taxes and Medicaid.

Apparently, it’s no longer big and beautiful. It’s now a “working families tax cut.”

This is false advertising, of course. Republicans are bragging about temporary tax cuts on tips and overtime — and ignoring the fact the richest 1% of households in the U.S. will get a tax reduction that is 20 times bigger than the one experienced by the typical American family.

Nevertheless, Republicans in Congress hope this rebrand will improve their prospects for the 2026 midterm elections. But I think they’re about to undo all the work they’ve put into this new slogan.

If the week-old government shutdown has done anything, it’s focused attention on the GOP’s all-consuming hatred for the Affordable Care Act and their determination to kill the ACA’s popular enhanced premium tax credits that make health care affordable for millions of low- and middle-income Americans.

The credits are scheduled to expire at the end of the year. Which means, in a few weeks when enrollment opens on the ACA marketplace, 135,000 Iowans and 24 million other Americans will get their first real look at the consequences of this new “working families tax increase.”

If Republicans get their way, the average premium on the Obamacare market for 2026 will more than double, according to the health care policy group KFF.

This is a pretty ugly truth, and Americans won’t like it.

A recent KFF poll said 78% of Americans want to extend these enhanced tax credits. Which is probably why you see so many Republicans like Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, trying to mislead people by claiming the shutdown is about extending health care coverage to illegal immigrants.

Multiple fact-checkers have pointed out this is not true.

Miller-Meeks was less dishonest in an article in the (Cedar Rapids) Gazette last week, complaining the enhanced tax credits distort the health insurance market. “It subsidizes the insurance companies so there is no incentive for them to lower costs,” she said.

Does anybody really believe health insurance costs will go down if these subsidies go away?

I understand the complaint real free market conservatives have that certain government subsidies and policies distort markets. But this has never bothered politicians like Miller-Meeks, who has consistently supported ethanol mandates and farm subsidies, even in the face of complaints that they, too, distort markets and raise prices.

Yet, Miller-Meeks now objects to subsidies that help regular Iowa families afford health insurance.

Ever since they were approved four years ago, these enhanced tax credits have driven a significant increase in ACA enrollment, even to the point where near universal health care coverage is finally within reach.

This would be a historic achievement. Politicians going back to Harry Truman have tried to accomplish this.

It’s not just poor people who have benefited from the enhanced tax credits, either. These Biden-era rules also put in place a cap on the costs middle-income families have to pay to get insurance through the ACA. This has greatly assisted small business owners and other Americans who previously had been shut out of financial help in the ACA marketplace.

If these tax credits expire, that help will go away and their costs will rise significantly.

For example, a 45-year-old restaurant worker making $65,000 will see his or her insurance costs go up $2,400 a year, according to KFF. This would more than wipe out any savings a restaurant worker would get from Trump’s new temporary tax break on tips.

Meanwhile, a 55-year-old couple in Iowa making about $95,000 a year would see their insurance costs rise $1,000 per month, according to Iowa regulators.

If anything, this is what this government shutdown is really about. Democrats are trying to preserve these tax breaks for the non-wealthy, and they’re using the only leverage they’ve got.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t like shutdowns. and these tax credits are expensive. The Wall Street Journal reports they’ll cost the federal treasury $350 billion over 10 years. That’s a lot. But it’s still only about one-third the $1 trillion cost of the tax cuts for the richest 1% of U.S. families that Republicans just passed.

It’s also less than 5% of the U.S. defense budget.

Why not use some of that money to help Iowa families avoid a big increase in their health insurance premiums next year? The government subsidizes practically every other type of health insurance, and only 6% of those subsidies go to people in the ACA marketplace.

The so-called enhanced subsidies make up even less of the total.

So, why not extend these subsidies?

I believe the answer to this question is simple: Republicans have made it their mission to kill Obamacare. They’ve already passed a number of under-the-radar changes this year aimed at making it harder to enroll in the ACA or even to claim regular premium tax credits.

This is just the latest step toward their ultimate goal.

President Donald Trump said Monday he’s willing to negotiate on the tax credits once the government reopens, and if this was a real offer, I’d encourage Democrats to sit down and talk. But frankly, I believe this is just a strategic move aimed at getting past the shutdown and the 2026 elections. Given the chance, Republicans will try again to kill Obamacare.

Unless somebody stands up to them.

If you want to know the real reason for the government shut down, this is it. And no dishonest marketing slogan will help Republicans explain to millions of American families the sticker-shock they’re going to get next month when the Affordable Care Act marketplace opens, and the GOP’s real priorities become clear.

Ed Tibbetts’ work can be read at Along the Mississippi, a proud member of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. Please check out the work of many Iowa writers and consider subscribing. https://edtibbetts.substack.com/