Here’s how much went into Catelin Drey's Senate District 1 win

SIOUX CITY — Woodbury County Republicans made Christopher Prosch their candidate for the Iowa Senate District 1 special election on July 8. The following day, Woodbury County Democrats chose Catelin Day to represent the party in a race to replace former State Sen. Rocky De Witt, who died in June.

Two months and more than $100,000 in total campaign spending and tens of thousands of door knocks later, Drey stands as the state senator-elect for District 1, defeating Prosch Tuesday by 11 percentage points. Her win breaks the GOP supermajority in the Iowa Senate and flipped the seat from R to D.

De Witt won the seat, which roughly covers northern Woodbury County, by 11 percentage points in 2022 when he defeated Democratic incumbent State Sen. Jackie Smith. President Donald Trump posted a similar margin over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the district in 2024.

“I am incredibly grateful to the voters in Senate District 1 for this opportunity to serve them,” Drey told The Journal Tuesday night after the win. “I’m so proud of the work that Team Drey did to get us to this point and I am ready to start doing the work in January.”

The turn of events in an off-cycle election, in a part of Iowa that has trended redder and redder, was enough to garner the attention of national media such as The New York Times and The Washington Post.

But interest in the race was waxing even before voters took to the polls.

Both candidates had multiple ads running, repeatedly. Drey canvassed the district with help from Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Nathan Sage, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls. On Monday, the Democratic National Committee announced it would distribute an organizing team of more than 30,000 volunteers for get-out-the-vote efforts in the district. In a post to the social media website X, formerly known as Twitter, Iowa House District 1 Rep. J.D. Scholten credited Drey, Iowa Senate Democrats and Woodbury County Democrats as most responsible for the win.

Prosch went door-to-door in the district with Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer and Iowa Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver. Both candidates estimated that respective campaign voter interactions hit five digits.

There are 31,911 total registered voters in the district, according to the Woodbury County Auditor's Office, and voter participation was at about 23.88 percent.

The money

Despite being an off-cycle race to fill a seat that will be up again in 2026, a steady stream of money poured into the Senate District 1 special election.

Filings on the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board show that, through Aug. 16, Prosch received two contributions between $10,000 and $100,000 from the Republican Party of Iowa. A contribution of $75,893 went from the Republican Party of Iowa to "Prosch for Iowa" on July 28. Six days prior, the website shows that the Republican Party of Iowa contributed $24,500 to "Prosch for Iowa."

The website's listings show that the state GOP also made 16 contributions between $1,000 and $10,000.

Tuesday evening, the Iowa GOP downplayed the Drey win and did not suggest it was emblematic of any larger trends away from Republicans and toward Democrats.

"National Democrats were so desperate for a win that they activated 30,000 volunteers and a flood of national money to win a state senate special election by a few hundred votes," Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a statement.

Through Aug. 16, Drey received one contribution between $10,000 and $100,000 from The PAC for America's Future, which has a Washington, D.C. post office box (the contribution was for $25,000). Her campaign had 13 contributions between $1,000 and $10,000. Eight of those contributions were from out of state and two were from out of the county. Contributions of $1,125, $1,000 and $1,000 came from Sioux City residents.

Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Rita Hart said the win signaled that the state was ready for "a new direction and Iowa Democrats will keep putting forward candidates who can deliver better representation for Iowans."

In the 2024 cycle, which was a presidential election, one of the most-expensive state legislative races was for Iowa Senate District 22, which includes part of Polk County. The Republican Party reportedly spent $650,000 on TV ads for incumbent Brad Zaun while the Democratic Party of Iowa dropped nearly $450,000 on Zaun's challenger Matt Blake. Blake managed to flip the seat with a win of about 5 points.

How special elections have gone in Iowa

Three may not be a trend, but Drey has company when it comes to overperforming in a Republican-friendly district in Iowa in 2025.

Iowa has seen three other special state legislative elections this year: Senate District 35, House District 78 and House District 100. Cedar Rapids Democrat Angel Ramirez won the House District 78 race while Clinton Democrat Mike Zimmer won the Senate District 35 election by about three points. Donnellson Republican Blaine Watkins won in House District 100 by about three points. Trump carried the latter two districts by 20 points or more, while Harris won District 78.

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In April, NBC News reported that up to that point Democrats bettered their margin of victory or defeat by about 11.5 points — when compared to the Trump-Harris election — in 16 special state legislative and congressional elections held across the country.

"The Democrat overperformed in 14 of those 16 contests, including flipping deep-red state Senate districts in Iowa and Pennsylvania," NBC News noted. The story also took care to mention that "Democrats have beaten expectations and outpaced Republicans in off-cycle contests, as their coalition is increasingly made up of high-engagement, high-propensity voters while Republicans have become the coalition of the less engaged."

The absentee battle

Recent data from the Pew Research Center has shown that "83 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents support no-excuse voting by mail, while 68 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners oppose it." That same data analysis showed that Trump voters were more likely to vote in person on Election Day (38 percent of his voters did so) than voters who supported then-Vice President Kamala Harris (29 percent).

The absentee race in Iowa Senate District 1 appeared to make all the difference. Drey won by 573 votes (1,883 to 1,310) in absentee voting, according to unofficial results from the county auditor's office.

That margin was larger than any margin either Drey or Prosch won by in any of the district's 13 precincts.

What lies ahead

As a result of Drey's win, the political calculus for the process for any gubernatorial nominees could change as a two-thirds majority is needed for approval. Prior to De Witt's death, the GOP had a 34-16 majority.

As for the 2026 election cycle, the primary is set for June 2 and the general election is Nov. 3.

Drey has already said she'll run for a full term.