Best- and worst-case scenarios for Iowa in the Big Ten women’s basketball race

IOWA CITY -- With 18 teams, the Big Ten is really big.

In terms of women’s basketball, it might be its best ever.

The arrival of top-ranked UCLA and top-five USC give the expanded league two legitimate national-championship hopefuls. Maryland and Ohio State add another pair of top-10 teams.

Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska and Illinois add quality depth.

The latest NCAA tournament bracketology by ESPN’s Charlie Creme has a dozen Big Ten squads in the field of 68.

After Caitlin Clark and Lisa Bluder led the Hawkeyes to back-to-back appearances in the NCAA championship game, where does this new-look version fit in the Big Ten hierarchy?

Iowa dropped its conference opener at Michigan State on Dec. 15. The Hawkeyes resume Big Ten action Sunday at home against Purdue, and are heavily favored to square their league ledger at 1-1.

Here are three scenarios in where the Hawkeyes might land:

The optimist

Lucy Olsen and Hannah Stuelke have first-team all-Big Ten seasons.

The freshmen continue to grow, and Aaliyah Guyton blossoms into one of the league’s top 3-point threats.

College GameDay returns to Carver for the retirement of Caitlin Clark’s uniform Feb. 2, and the Hawkeyes make a big day even bigger with a stunning win over JuJu Watkins and top-five USC.

Bottom line: Iowa earns a top-four Big Ten finish at 14-4, reaches the Big Ten tournament semifinals, lands a 4-seed for the NCAA tournament, holds serve at Carver to reach the Sweet 16 and narrowly misses a major regional-semifinal upset in Birmingham (or maybe Spokane).

Final record: 27-7.

The pessimist

The turnovers keep coming against aggressive defensive teams, and the 3-point shooting remains spotty.

A key player suffers a season-ending injury.

Iowa drops three of four against the new West Coast teams, is swept by its lone double-play, Nebraska, and suffers an unexpected defeat to a second-division team.

Bottom line: Iowa slides to a 10th-place tie in the Big Ten at 8-10 and goes one-and-done at the Big Ten tournament. The Hawkeyes still make the NCAA, and are eliminated in the first round.

Final record: 18-13.

The realist

Starting with Sunday’s game, the Hawkeyes win just about all of the games they should. They face five quality foes (Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, USC and UCLA) at Carver, and find a way to win at least two of them.

Three-point shooting never becomes a distinct strength, but does improve steadily and finishes around 36 percent.

A fourth scorer emerges (Sydney Affolter, perhaps?) and joins Olsen, Stuelke and Addi O’Grady in averaging double figures in league play.

Preseason, I had Iowa at 21-8 overall, 12-6 Big Ten. Not going to stray far from that now.

Bottom line: Iowa finishes in a solid four-way tie for sixth place in the Big Ten at 11-7 and reaches the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. A 6-seed in the NCAA tournament, the Hawkeyes reach the Round of 32.

Final record: 23-10.

Projected Big Ten standings

(not including postseason play)

T-1. UCLA (28-2 overall, 16-2 Big Ten)

T-1. USC (26-3, 16-2)

3. Maryland (26-3, 15-3)

4. Ohio State (25-4, 14-4)

5. Indiana (21-8, 13-5)

T-6. Illinois (21-8, 11-7)

T-6. Iowa (21-8, 11-7)

T-6. Michigan State (21-8, 11-7)

T-6. Nebraska (21-9, 11-7)

T-10. Minnesota (20-10, 8-10)

T-10. Michigan (17-12, 8-10)

12. Penn State (16-13, 7-11)

T-13. Wisconsin (15-14, 5-13)

T-13. Oregon (14-15, 5-13)

T-15. Washington (13-17, 4-14)

T-15. Purdue (11-18, 4-14)

17. Rutgers (10-19, 2-16)

18. Northwestern (8-21, 1-17)

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com