3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Miami in Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28, 2024)

ORLANDO, Fla. — Nothing. And everything. All at once.

Iowa State has already set a program record for wins with 10 and unless you’re in the College Football Playoff, bowl games are mere diversions with value attached.

They’re still important because of the added practices and player development that accompanies them. ISU’s players talk about making more history by winning 11 games for the first time ever, and that’s clearly a motivating factor for them.

But now that the playoffs have been expanded, bowl games become even less relevant, making the well-worn phrase, “We’re treating it like any other game,” as true as ever.

So ISU and Miami — Saturday’s Pop-Tart Bowl opponent — should let it rip and there can be only one that cannibalizes that human-sided Pop-Tart.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Contain Cam, Part II

Miami’s Cam Ward is the best quarterback Iowa State’s faced this season. Period.

Ward doesn’t run it a lot because he doesn’t have to — and his 36 touchdown passes this season speak to his explosiveness and efficiency.

The 6-foot-2, 223-pound senior’s career started at Incarnate Word, then wound through Washington State to Miami. By all accounts he’s playing on Saturday, despite being considered a top NFL Draft Pick, and given how Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt ran wild on the Cyclones in third and fourth down situations, he may be tasked with showcasing all of his talents in Orlando.

If ISU is to avoid being shredded by someone named Cam for the second straight game (ahem, Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo), it will need to spy on Ward and shine in the secondary. As of now, star safety Malik Verdon seems iffy at best for Saturday’s game, so younger players at linebacker and safety will need to be at their absolute best.

2. Don’t let Rocco get rocked

Much has been made — for good reason — of the Cyclones’ inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks this season, but the offensive line deserves some praise for protecting quarterback Rocco Becht.

ISU is tied for 20th nationally in sacks allowed at 15 and check in at 11th among FBS teams in sack yardage yielded at 77. Becht’s ability to evade pressure partly explains that, but the O-line’s markedly improved overall, and could frustrate the Hurricanes’ vaunted pass rush.

When Becht enjoys a clean pocket, he’s extremely accurate, and if his blockers can give him one more second to cycle through his progressions, star receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, among others, should be able to get open and make big plays.

3. Take shots on both sides

No team in the country remotely converts on third down as well as Miami, which is doing so at a shocking 56.5 percent rate.

ISU is well down that chart at 42.5 percent — and equalizing that statistic would make a big difference in the game’s outcome.

Ward not only can extend plays with his feet, but his top receiver, Xavier Restrepo, serves as his so-called “security blanket.” He’s caught 11 touchdown passes and the Hurricanes’ second-leading receiver, Jacolby George owns seven touchdown grabs. Both are big play threats, but tight end Elijah Arroyo may be Miami’s X-factor. He’s averaging a team-high 17.0 yards per catch and has caught six touchdown passes.

So will veteran Cyclones defensive coordinator Jon Heacock call up more blitzes? It’s a risky gambit, but when better to do so than in a bowl game, where several younger players can prove their mettle. ISU simply must pressure Ward, or else he’ll pick the defense apart. Heacock’s called “the professor” for a reason, and he’ll have a plan to shake things up.

PREDICTION

Iowa State likely will need to score in the high 30s (at least) to beat Miami and its No. 1 scoring offense.

If Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward plays, as expected, the Cyclones’ defense will need to force a turnover or two to keep the game close. I think ISU almost does enough to win a bowl game for the first time since 2021, but falls a tiny bit short.

The wild card? Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser’s game plan. He could try to go run heavy early in an effort to keep Ward and his weapons off the field, but it’s at least arguable that he should embrace a shootout and lean heavily into Higgins and Noel in the passing game.

Miami 38, Iowa State 33