Trump’s landslide win could have been massive

Though both of the major parties have won five of the last 10 presidential elections, Democrats took the popular vote seven of those times. Naturally, Democrats have long wished to elect the president by popular vote.

The U.S. Constitution, however, requires that presidents are chosen by electors in every state in numbers equal to each state’s delegation in Washington. Doing away with that requires a constitutional amendment, which is extremely unlikely.

To get around the Constitution, which does not dictate how a state casts its electoral votes, many Democrat-run states have joined The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Currently enacted in 17 states and Washington, D.C., with 209 electoral votes between them, the NPVIC is an agreement in which each participating state promises to award its electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote.

Once enacted in enough states to combine for a minimum 270 electoral votes — the number needed to win the election — that promise comes due. Each state will begin giving its entire slate of electoral votes to whomever carries the popular vote — regardless of how each state’s voters marked their ballots.

Supporters of the compact claim candidates will have an incentive to campaign in every state instead of just a few swing states.

Opponents doubt that. More likely, they state, candidates would focus primarily on densely populated urban areas that heavily favor Democrats, snubbing smaller and/or less-populated states for whom the current electoral vote system affords a bit of relevance in electing the president.

Opponents also warn the NPVIC could badly undermine the will of voters if their state has to award its electoral votes to a candidate not supported by a majority of its own voters.

Plug in the numbers and see for yourself what the electoral vote would have looked like with the NPVIC in effect. But be warned: if the once-and-again election of Donald Trump already offends your sensibilities, make sure you’re sitting while you read this. (Better yet, just lay down.)

If every state currently pledged to the compact gave its electoral slate to the winner of the popular vote, Trump’s electoral vote margin of victory would have been 520 to 18.

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NPVIC participant Illinois’ 19 electoral votes would have gone to Trump. As would the 28 votes held by New York. California is an NPVIC state. 54 votes for Trump.

Only Virginia, New Hampshire and Nebraska, who have avoided the compact, would have kept their combined 18 electoral votes for Democrat Kamala Harris.

In Iowa, our votes would not be affected. Legislation to add Iowa to the NPVIC, introduced in 2021 by Democrat legislator Jennifer Konfrst, went nowhere. It’ll stay there.

But in other states, — Minnesota, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maryland and more — voters should start begging their legislatures to fix their terrible mistakes. Virginia and New Hampshire’s leaders should take note.

They sure would have learned if the rules were already in effect this year. Washington, D.C. voted 92.5% blue. As participants in the compact, their electoral votes would have gone to Big Bad Orange. And the electoral map would be so, so red.

319-398-8266; althea.cole@thegazette.com