3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Arizona State (Dec. 7, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State football coach Matt Campbell often talks about the many “firsts” the Cyclones’ program has achieved during his nine-plus season tenure.

He does that to deflect credit to his staff and his players, not to self-aggrandize. ISU’s poised to deliver another first — a berth in the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff — because humility comes from the top down and extreme effort begins at ground level and rises up from there.

The Cyclones also have never won a conference championship game, and the 27-21 setback to Oklahoma in 2020 remains stuck in Campbell’s craw five years later. Losing this game wouldn’t be disastrous, as ISU would still almost certainly will play in a fair-weather bowl game, but Campbell, his staff, and his players, have said all season they aim to play “championship-level football.”

They’ve done a good job so far. They’ll need to do a great job on Saturday to make that goal a reality.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Contain Cam

It’s rare the Sun Devils run an offensive play and star tailback Cam Skattebo’s name isn’t mentioned. That’s by design.

The 5-foot-11, 215-pound senior’s nearly doubled his single-season career high for total touchdowns with 19, and his 247 carries this season are the seventh-most nationally among FBS backs.

The former Sacramento State transfer also has caught a career-high 35 passes — a number likely to increase with top receiver Jordyn Tyson out because of injury. Skattebo’s rushed for 1,398 yards and netted 468 yards through the air, and he’s capable of running routes downfield, not just to the flat or over the middle.

He’s also very difficult to take down, powerfully bouncing off would-be tacklers in key moments to extend drives that often finish with him in the end zone. Skattebo’s rushed for 247-plus yards in five Big 12 games — all Arizona State wins. That provides further evidence that slowing him down, as Texas Tech and Cincinnati, did gives ISU its best hopes of winning the Big 12 championship game.

2. Maintain the balance

Early this season, the Cyclones often needed to pass to set up the run in an effort to keep opposing defenses honest. That changed in Week 3, when ISU feasted on a vulnerable Arkansas State rushing defense and racked up 237 yards on the ground.

Ever since — outside of the Kansas loss — the Cyclones’ three-back attack of Carson Hansen, Jaylon Jackson and Abu Sama II has been solid, which helps quarterback Rocco Becht put up big numbers in the passing game.

Arizona State, meanwhile, fields the Big 12’s second-best rushing defense, so it may be difficult to keep the play calling balanced. But last week’s win over Kansas State shows it can be done this Saturday, too. The Cyclones rushed for 187 yards against the Wildcats — who happen to have the conference’s top rushing defense.

3. Think big (strategically)

The Sun Devils’ defense is built to prevent big plays, and it’s excelled in that area this season. Arizona State’s allowed just one passing play to span 50-plus yards, and the same holds true in terms of the run game.

In short, it’s nearly impossible to beat the Sun Devils deep, and it’s even more difficult to shed tacklers and evade second-level pursuit for explosive runs. But if ISU can enjoy success on first down, churning out three-to-five yard gains, the playbook opens up, and star receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel could find themselves in single coverage on several occasions.

If and when that happens, Becht must strike with accuracy — and often does, unless he’s under duress.

PREDICTION

The Sun Devils lost their 1,000-yard receiver, Jordyn Tyson, to injury, so they’ll likely lean even more heavily on talented tailback Cam Skattebo to post big gains in the ground and through the air.

Arizona State’s quarterback, Sam Leavitt, has been efficient and productive (21 touchdown passes, five interceptions) with Tyson in the lineup, so expect the Cyclones’ defense to work hard to cover up tight end Chamon Metayer (five touchdown grabs) in order to force some mistakes.

ISU’s been good at controlling the clock offensively most of the time in recent weeks, and if it can get solid production from it’s run game — and win the turnover battle — a playoff berth looms on the horizon.

Iowa State 27, Arizona State 24