A few easy Iowa legislative predictions

Some things are hard to predict. Why is my cellphone obsolete after a month? Which Hawkeye quarterback will play Saturday? Will the Stranger Things cast be on Medicare before it returns to Netflix, and what Cabinet position will Dr. Phil be awarded?

But there are also easy things to predict. A match between a 58-year-old biting-boxer and a 27-year-old YouTuber will always feature dancing and a few scripted punches.

The most predictable is there will be extreme public education bills rammed through the Iowa Legislature by our one-party government, and an Iowa governor desperate to get her MAGA creds back.

For many, it may feel like a legislative derecho.

Gov. Kim Reynolds has announced she’ll cut property taxes this legislative session. But she’s silent about what will replace the lost revenue for public schools and other essential county and city services. She also is silent about how she wants to make the cuts.

Will she use a scalpel or an ax?

Revenue replacing property tax needs to be predictable and sustainable. Schools begin planning their budgets for the next year in September so they can publish a final budget on April 15.

By law, State Supplemental Aide needs to pass 30 days after the governor releases her budget. Republican led legislatures routinely ignore this deadline, leaving school districts guessing. Without knowing what the funding will be, school districts begin thinking about laying off already hard to find educators. Districts will need a guarantee about the amount of replacement revenue.

The funding source must also be sustainable. That's why school funding was tied to property taxes. Creators of the school funding formula understood there would always be property to tax and that guaranteed sustainable funding for schools allowing them to survive and thrive.

That’s at risk.

Every part of the state has legislative forums before the session begins. Please don’t let legislators talk about property tax cuts without also explaining replacing lost revenue. When they begin to dance, stop the music and get some answers.

I predict like Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma, we’ll see bills force feeding one brand of Christianity in public schools.

All kids of any religion or no religion should be comfortable in our public schools. Just a few sessions ago the right claimed teachers were pornographers and groomers. It's amazing they now want those same teachers teaching public Sunday school.

I predict, even though the Iowa Public Employees' Retirement System (IPERS) is financially sound, there will be an effort to change the system, so it resembles a 401(k) model where retirement is based on the employee and employer contributions and the market.

For years, this has been a Republican goal. Now, with a perceived mandate and a super majority, they’ll be emboldened. The scheme has always been to make changes for new public employees and leave veterans with a defined benefit. That could destroy the system. It also would encourage massive retirement before the change and would devastate recruitment of new educators.

I also predict the continued underfunding of public schools. Because of vouchers, a two-tier, publicly funded school system is fiscally unsustainable.

Wannabe professor-legislators will further meddle in university curriculum.

Unfortunately, like the U.S. House, instead of tackling education issues, the Iowa House will protect their women, whether the women like it or not, by debating about what bathroom Aime Wichtendahl, the first transgender woman elected may use.

I'm frequently wrong. But the one thing I’m positive about is there’s no mandate for destroying Iowa public schools. Let them know.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City taught for 11 years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association Regional Director for 27 years until he retired. BruceLear2419@gmail.com