3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football against Utah (Nov. 23, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State still retains a solid chance of reaching the Big 12 title game if it can end the regular season with a win at Utah and another victory at home against Kansas State.

Neither are gimmes in any sense of the word, but if the Cyclones (8-2, 5-2) stay on the plus side of the turnover ledger at 6:30 p.m. (CT) Saturday (Fox), phase one of that plan should go as hoped.

The Cyclones would remain eligible for a potential College Football Playoff berth (which would only happen if they win the Big 12 championship game), and the Utes (4-6, 1-6) would be banished to their first losing season since 2013.

ISU has never finished a regular season with nine wins, let alone a possible 10, so history can be made on Saturday night in its first road game at Utah since 1975.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Stoke the J-J train

Iowa State’s senior wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have been consistent producers all season — and both could eclipse the 1,000 receiving yards mark.

No Cyclone receiving duo has ever achieved that feat, and the mere fact Noel (935 yards through the air this season) and Higgins (860 yards) are within reach of that milestone speaks to their skill and camaraderie.

ISU’s struggled to find a strong third option in the passing game while tight end Ben Brahmer has sat out the last several games because of a lower-body injury, and Higgins and Noel have responded by caching almost every reasonably accurate pass Rocco Becht has thrown their way.

Utah has some talented players in its secondary, but none can match up with Noel and Higgins. Noel already ranks fifth all-time at ISU in receiving yards with 2,592. Higgins (1,843) has cracked the top 10 in just two seasons with the team.

2. Get in the backfield

The Cyclones’ typical and trademark three-man front has produced relatively few tackles for loss this season and also hasn’t put much pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

ISU is tied for 82nd nationally in tackles for loss with 52 and has the second-lowest sacks total (12) among Power Four defenses. Utah’s three different starting quarterbacks have been sacked 21 times — tied for 75th nationally — so the Cyclones may be able to mount more pressure than usual.

ISU recorded six tackles for loss in last week’s win over Cincinnati. It’s the Cyclones’ second-highest total in Big 12 play — even as they failed to notch a sack for the second consecutive week.

Linebacker Kooper Ebel leads ISU with 6.0 TFLs and defensive end Joey Petersen has 5.5. Both could be disruptive on Saturday night for a Cyclone front that has been boosted by the return of Dom Orange.

3. Take your time

Despite its well-documented struggles this season, Utah’s been elite in one area: Controlling the clock. The Utes rank sixth nationally in time of possession, enjoying a six-plus minute advantage in that area.

ISU’s also been solid in terms of ball control, ranking 22nd among FBS teams with an average time of possession of 31 minutes and 55 seconds. The Cyclones defense is getting healthier, but it’s still without three of its top linebackers and possibly one of its strongest contributors up front in J.R. Singleton.

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So any extra downtime for that thin unit would be valuable and would likely pay dividends if the game is tight in the closing minutes.

Prediction for Iowa State at Utah

Expect the Cyclones’ defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, to have a few tricks up his sleeve as his unit gets healthier and plays on the road for the last time this season.

Becht shines, Noel surpasses the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career, and ISU escapes Salt Lake City with a win.

Iowa State 27, Utah 17