3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Maryland in 2024

IOWA CITY — The Iowa-Maryland game will be a quasi-family reunion, with Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz on one sideline and Maryland analyst (and ex-Iowa offensive coordinator) Brian Ferentz on the other.

Kirk Ferentz was not one to make a big deal out of the family moment, though, trying to compare it to when former Iowa assistants like Barry Alvarez or Bill Snyder faced off against the Hawkeyes.

“It’s probably not a great time for a family reunion or just even seeing old friends,” Ferentz said this week. “Everybody is cordial, but the bottom line is we’ve all got business to take care of on Saturday.”

When it comes to the game itself, Iowa remains the clear favorite despite the Hawkeyes potentially needing to start a walk-on quarterback.

Ferentz said Tuesday that Jackson Stratton would be the starting quarterback “if we were playing right now” and reaffirmed that status during his Wednesday radio show. That’s despite Ferentz saying that Cade McNamara has been medically cleared and practiced on Sunday.

Here are three keys for the Stratton-led Hawkeyes to win in College Park:

Can Iowa assert its dominance on the ground (on both sides of the ball)?

Iowa had a wide array of shortcomings in its loss before the bye week to UCLA. But the Hawkeyes’ futility on the ground — offensively trying to establish the run and defensively trying to stop the run — was particularly glaring.

The Hawkeyes mustered only 80 rushing yards against the Bruins on 31 carries. UCLA, meanwhile, had a staggering 211 rushing yards on 39 carries against Phil Parker’s defense.

As opposing defenses continue to focus on Iowa star running back Kaleb Johnson, having at least some rushing threat will be critical on Saturday. When Johnson rushes for at least 100 yards, Iowa is 6-1.

Does Jackson Stratton play relatively mistake-free football?

Iowa has not necessarily needed All-American-caliber performances from its quarterbacks. After all, the Hawkeyes defeated Minnesota with 62 passing yards from McNamara and routed Washington with 108 yards from McNamara.

Some mistakes are inevitable, especially with a relatively younger quarterback like Stratton. But the Hawkeyes would benefit greatly if those mistakes do not carry too much of a price tag.

When Iowa’s quarterbacks have at least one turnover, the Hawkeyes are 1-4 this season. (The one win was against Northwestern, when McNamara had a second-quarter interception.) When Iowa’s quarterbacks do not commit any turnovers, the Hawkeyes are 5-0.

Iowa’s secondary vs. Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr.

At 1-6 in Big Ten play, Maryland is far from the standard-bearer of the conference.

But Terrapins do rank No. 1 in the conference with 305.7 passing yards per game — more than 15 yards ahead of the next-best passing attack in the league. Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown at least one interception in each of his last five games, though.

How competitive the Terps are on Saturday may come down to which version of Edwards is on display at SECU Stadium. Is it the Edwards who set a program record earlier this year when he completed 28 of 32 passes against Villanova? Or is it the Edwards who had two picks in Maryland’s 25-point loss to Minnesota?

Prediction

Iowa’s quarterback situation going into the Maryland game is not ideal, but the Hawkeyes still should be the superior team on Saturday.

Iowa 17, Maryland 13

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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