3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football against Kansas (Nov. 9, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State (7-1, 4-1) has seen its margin for error dip to near zero after last week’s loss to Texas Tech.

And while the Cyclones weren’t broadly considered to be a prime Big 12 title contender before the season, they established themselves as one through eight games.

ISU’s made it clear it intends to win the conference crown, but unless it wins out, hopes of that happening almost certainly vanish. The Jayhawks (2-6, 1-4) have the top-end talent to quash ISU’s hopes, but to do so, they’ll need to flip a season-long script marked by missed opportunities.

The Cyclones simply can’t afford a loss if they want to remain in contention for a league title, which means they should be highly focused and less prone to untimely mistakes.

Here are three keys to victory for Iowa State.

1. Ditch the poor starts

The No. 17 Cyclones have fallen behind 7-0 in each of the past four games, and that’s a trend that must end if they hope to win out in the regular season and virtually ensure a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

Opposing teams have excelled when following their scripted offensive plays early on, then ISU’s defense adjusts and generally clamps down as the game winds down. The Cyclones offense also has started slowly in recent weeks and settled for two first-half field goals in last week’s loss to Texas Tech before quarterback Rocco Becht finally found wide receiver Jayden Higgins for a touchdown four seconds from halftime.

Kansas has lost five games by a combined 19 points, so a fast start and early double-digit lead could force doubt to creep in early and allow ISU to — as Baylor Coach Dave Aranda described it — “choke out” the opponent.

2. Find a third receiver

Walk-on wide receiver Carson Brown has been a revelation for a Cyclones offense that’s heavily reliant on top receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

They were targeted 25 times in Becht’s 36 throws last Saturday as productive tight end Ben Brahmer remained sidelined with a lower leg injury. Brown was targeted only once — but he turned that into a 44-yard touchdown catch that seemingly saved the game until Texas Tech scored late.

Noel and Higgins have combined for 1,428 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Brahmer, who is doubtful to return this week, is the only other ISU pass catcher with more than 100 receiving yards this season.

Tight ends Gabe Burkle and Tyler Moore have come on late, but the Cyclones need to find Brown more often — or discover ways to use transfers Eli Green and/or Isaiah Alston. Green hasn’t caught a pass since the West Virginia game. Alston hasn’t caught a pass all season.

3. Spy on Jalon Daniels

Statistically, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is enduring the worst season of his long and injury-riddled career.

But the adroit playmaker will likely be at his best on Saturday against the Cyclones — and he’s been very sharp as of late. Daniels has thrown five touchdown passes to just one interception in the past three games and also rushed for a touchdown in each of those contests.

He’s a threat to break off a big run at any time, so it's good news for ISU that linebacker Zach Lovett may be back from injury. The Cyclones defense has struggled against highly mobile quarterbacks — especially in the UCF win — and Daniels may be the most talented dual-threat quarterback they’ll face all season.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Kansas

There’s a good reason Las Vegas initially pegged ISU as a 3.5-point favorite — and that number was down to 2.5 in various sportsbooks as we reached the middle of the week. ISU’s offense should be able to thrive, and the defense should do just enough to eke out a narrow win at a more-or-less neutral site at Arrowhead Stadium.

Iowa State 31, Kansas 27

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com