3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Wisconsin in 2024

IOWA CITY — Wisconsin football appears to be in a better state than its 5-3 overall record and 3-2 Big Ten record might suggest.

Iowa’s Week 10 opponent has yet to lose to an unranked team, with the Badgers’ three losses coming to then-No. 4 Alabama, then-No. 13 USC and No. 3 Penn State. (The USC loss comes with the caveat that the Trojans have since fallen out of the polls.)

Luke Fickell’s team has shown significant improvement as the season has progressed as well. After averaging 21.5 points in its first four games, Wisconsin has averaged 32.5 points in its four games since.

At the same time, the Badgers went from allowing 26.8 points per game in their first four games to only 11 points per game in their last four games. The Mike Tressel-coached unit has allowed only four touchdowns in Wisconsin’s last four games.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to hand their border-state rival its first unranked loss of the year:

Who wins at the line of scrimmage?

What happens at the line of scrimmage — both Iowa’s offensive line against Wisconsin’s defensive line and vice versa — will likely be a major factor in determining which team takes home the brass bull.

“This game has always been about the trenches,” Iowa defensive line coach Kelvin Bell said this week. “I think the trophy is appropriate with it being a bull because it is a line-of-scrimmage game. It always has been with Wisconsin, and we’re looking forward to the challenge.”

Wisconsin’s three returning starters from last year’s offensive line includes possible 2025 draft prospect Jack Nelson at left tackle. Nelson has started in 46 of Wisconsin’s last 47 games and has been an all-Big Ten honorable mention in two of the last three seasons. The Badgers will be going up against an Iowa defensive front that has limited opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per rushing attempt.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s offensive line — with six players who have at least 16 career starts — will be going up against a Wisconsin defensive line led by Albany transfer Elijah Hills. The Badgers have allowed 4.5 yards per rushing attempt this season.

How efficient of a passer will Brendan Sullivan be?

Brendan Sullivan undoubtedly gave Iowa a spark on offense in its 40-14 win over Northwestern. His mobility was a large aspect of that success, whether it be the plays he made on his feet or the opportunities he opened for others.

But Wisconsin has the benefit of a week to prepare for Sullivan’s mobility and play-extending tendencies. A mobile threat by itself likely will not be enough to outwit Wisconsin’s defense.

If he can give Iowa 150-plus yards in the air — something Cade McNamara has only done against Illinois State (251), Troy (176) and barely Michigan State (150) — the Hawkeyes’ path to victory looks much more favorable. The Badgers are 5-0 this season when allowing fewer than 150 passing yards, compared to 0-3 when opposing quarterbacks reach the 150-yard mark.

Essentially, if Sullivan is efficient as a passer as well as a runner, last week’s spark could look more like an enduring flame.

Which team plays mistake-free football?

Saturday’s Heartland Trophy game will feature two of the least-penalized teams in the country.

Iowa leads the FBS with only 2.75 penalties committed per game. Wisconsin, meanwhile, ranks sixth with 4.13 penalties per game.

The Iowa-Wisconsin rivalry has had its fair share of one-sided games, like Iowa’s 28-7 win in 2020 and Wisconsin’s 27-7 win in 2021. But there have been plenty of close games in the series, too, such as Wisconsin’s two-point win in 2019 and Iowa’s four-point win in 2015.

If it ends up being the latter — after all, Iowa is only a three-point favorite — the team that avoids a costly (and preventable) mistake could very well be the one keeping the bull.

Prediction

Luke Fickell’s team has made significant strides since last year’s Heartland Trophy game and will not be an easy foe on Saturday.

Iowa 21, Wisconsin 20

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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