Iowa’s competitive Congressional campaigns draw national interest, support

INDIANOLA — Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the U.S. House, spends a lot of time traveling the country to help his fellow Republicans get reelected, especially in competitive districts.

There are few more competitive than Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional districts.

Johnson visited both on Friday, when he attended campaign events with 3rd District Republican incumbent Congressman Zach Nunn in the afternoon and 1st District incumbent Republican Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the evening.

Also on Friday, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota and former presidential candidate, was in Central Iowa to participate in a campaign event with 3rd District Democrat Lanon Baccam and then a fundraiser. Baccam, Klobuchar, and advocates for Iowa seniors discussed the importance of supporting older Iowans and continuing to find ways to lower prescription drug costs.

The visits from Johnson and Klobuchar are just the latest examples of how Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional districts are among the most competitive in the nation.

Nunn, who is completing his first term in Congress, faces Baccam. In her re-election bid, Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan.

Multiple national forecasters in recent weeks changed their projection of the two campaigns to toss-up status, after both had been considered Republican leans earlier in the cycle.

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate both the 1st and 3rd districts as toss-ups. Fox News has the 1st District as a toss-up and Elections Daily has the 3rd District as a toss-up.

“This has never been a safe district. Iowa-1 and Iowa-3 are not safe districts. They’re competitive swing districts. We know that,” Miller-Meeks told reporters after a closed-press fundraiser in Indianola. “And in a presidential cycle, it’s a little different than a midterm. So as Speaker Johnson said, it’s a swing district, it’s a tough district, but we think we’re going to prevail.”

Johnson told reporters he has been to more than 230 cities in 40 states helping elect Republicans to the U.S. House.

“I’ve been traveling nonstop,” he said. “Our incumbents are in the tightest districts, tightest reelects. And Mariannette Miller-Meeks is one of those. Everybody around the country watches this district every cycle because it’s so close.”

Rita Hart, the chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said earlier Friday that the campaign surrogate appearances reinforce how close both parties expect the 1st and 3rd District elections to be.

“It just solidifies how close these races are, right? They’re just going to be razor thin,” Hart said.

If there is anyone who could see a razor-thin election coming, it would be Hart and Miller-Meeks. In 2020, Miller-Meeks edged Hart by just six votes out of more than 400,000 cast.

“The money is pouring in on both sides, and the help in surrogates is coming in on both sides,” Hart said. “They’re trying to bring attention to the same thing that I think is important, and that is that people have got to get to the polls and let their voices be heard.”

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Views of the campaigns from Iowa experts

Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa, said the presence of high-profile surrogates like Klobuchar and Johnson can bring attention, excitement and fundraising opportunities to both campaigns.

The emphasis on health care issues may resonate with senior voters, who are a reliable voting bloc in Iowa, Hoffman said. Meanwhile, Johnson’s support for Nunn and Miller-Meeks indicates the races are tight and that the party is working to protect vulnerable incumbents.

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Hoffman said Johnson’s visit can help garner new eyes on the candidates, signal high-level party support and increase voter engagement. Republicans’ slim majority in Congress is in danger, making it crucial for the party to pull out all stops to protect incumbents, she said.

Miller-Meeks has faced criticism from some conservative voters in her district. She fended off a primary challenge in June against underfunded challenger David Pautsch, who came within a surprisingly close 12 points of the GOP incumbent, taking 44 percent of the vote.

Johnson’s presence may help her shore up support and address concerns about her conservatism and support for former President Donald Trump’s agenda, Hoffman said.

“We know in the primary she wasn’t as strong as the party would have liked her to have been in that regard,” she said.

Overall, she said the dynamics in these races are uncertain, and the final weeks leading up to the election will be crucial in determining the outcomes. The competitive nature of these races underscores the importance of turnout and enthusiasm among voters, with indications that Democrats may have an edge in Iowa, Hoffman said.

University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle noted the upcoming election is expected to be close, both at the presidential and congressional levels, with no clear advantage for either party.

“We aren’t expecting any kind of wave, blue or red this time, and because of the close division in the House and the Senate for that matter,” Hagle said.

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Johnson’s visit likely is aimed at encouraging Republicans to support Miller-Meeks despite differences because it is better than the alternative, Hagle said.

He said Johnson’s message likely will serve to rally the Republican base to vote for Miller-Meeks, emphasizing the importance of having a GOP majority in Congress to deliver on an agenda of curbing illegal immigration, extending and building on the Trump-era tax cuts, confronting China, boosting domestic oil and gas production, expanding school choice, and cutting the size and scope of the federal government under a unified Republican House, Senate and White House.

“I was reminded of how (Republican former president Ronald Reagan) said way back when, the person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend, don’t worry about the 20 percent where you disagree,” Hagle said. “So that may be the kind of message that Johnson is going to give to, again, make sure that the base … doesn’t sit on their hands” in the congressional race, or instead support a Libertarian write-in candidate.

Republicans are better funded for the final push, with more cash on hand, despite Democrats raising more money, Hagle noted.

What the candidates are saying

Miller-Meeks pushed back at the suggestion that Johnson came to Iowa to bolster her image with the Republican base. She said since Iowa is no longer a competitive state in the presidential election — Iowa went safely to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 — surrogates like the Speaker of the U.S. House can help excite Iowa Republican voters.

“This is our way of motivating, energizing, getting people out to vote,” Miller-Meeks said.

Then Johnson brandished Miller-Meeks’ conservative resume.

“This is a common sense, principled governing conservative. That’s what the times call for,” Johnson said of Miller-Meeks. “She represents Iowa-1 with great distinction, and no one can ever question that. …

“She knows the interests and the concerns of her constituents, and she represents it as well as anybody possibly could. And that’s why she’s going to get reelected again.”

Back in Des Moines, Klobuchar suggested that Johnson’s presence in Iowa shows that Democratic candidates like Baccam and Bohannan are posing a serious threat to the Republican incumbents.

“I do think when the Speaker comes in like this, it shows that this guy’s gaining momentum,” Klobuchar said of Baccam.

And what does it show when a neighbor-state U.S. Senator comes to town to help Baccam, Klobuchar was asked.

“I committed to do this the minute he announced that he was running,” she said.

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com

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