Data analysis: Why Iowa football has improved so much in third-down efficiency

IOWA CITY — Pick an offensive statistic, and there is a good chance that Iowa football has shown significant improvement from 2023 to 2024.

Yards per game? Iowa went from 234.6 to 357.6.

Points per game? Iowa went from 15.4 to 29.2.

Even Iowa’s passer rating is better — from 91.2 (130th in FBS) to 123.0 (105th in FBS).

Few metrics show a more stark improvement, though, than the Hawkeyes’ rise in third-down efficiency. A year after ranking 126th nationally in the metric, they are 39th at the halfway point of the 2024 season.

More specifically, Iowa’s third-down efficiency has jumped from 29.4 percent in 2023 to 45.1 percent through its first six games. Iowa’s 15.7 percent improvement is eighth-highest among non-reclassifying FBS teams and fourth-best among Power Four schools.

Why is Iowa’s third-down efficiency so much better?

Much of Iowa’s improvement in third-down outcomes can be attributed to doing better on first and second downs and consequently facing more favorable third-down situations.

“If you can manage the situations, that certainly helps,” Ferentz said. “To that point, I think we are protecting a little bit better, probably getting the ball out a little bit quicker. All those things help out. Somebody has to get open.”

Only 24.4 percent of Iowa’s third-down attempts have been third-and-9 or longer, according to a Gazette analysis of play-by-play data. On the other hand, 47.6 percent of Iowa’s attempts have been third-and-4 or shorter.

Unsurprisingly, the attempts from shorter distances have been much more successful. When Iowa has faced third-and-4 or shorter, the Hawkeyes have converted 66.7 percent of the time. When facing third-and-long — nine yards or farther for a first down — that percentage drops to 20 percent.

“We didn’t get into very many third-and-longs,” center Logan Jones said. “That’s when teams like to throw a whole bunch of stuff at you. … And then we don’t have to pass-pro for nearly as long against all these guys doing all this weird stuff. So if we can stay out of the third-and-long, it definitely helps out quite a bit.”

Along with avoiding difficult pass-protection scenarios, Iowa’s abundance of third-and-short scenarios means it is more often in a position to do what it has done best — running the ball. The Hawkeyes rank 10th nationally with 5.8 yards per carry this season.

When Iowa runs the ball in third-and-short situations — where it needs four or fewer yards to convert — they have been successful on 16 of 22 occasions.

Impact of Iowa’s improved third-down efficiency

Iowa’s favorable third-down situations have translated to longer, more-sustained drives for the Tim Lester-led offense.

After ranking 105th nationally in time of possession in 2023, the Hawkeyes are now 63rd. That means fewer plays for Iowa’s defense to be on the field, too — from 69.3 plays per game in 2023 to 62.7 in 2024, which marks a 9.6 percent decrease.

The Hawkeyes already have as many offensive touchdowns through their first six games this year (20) as they had in all 14 games last year.

These trends also are a reflection of Iowa’s overall improvement on the offensive side of the ball. Iowa went from averaging 3.9 yards per play in 2023 to averaging 5.8 yards per play through the first six games of the 2024 season.

Kirk Ferentz, looking back at the Washington game, said this week it would be “fair to say it’s our most complete game thus far.”

“Played some good complementary football,” Ferentz said.

More quality complementary football could be on the way if the Hawkeyes can, among other things, continue moving the chains on third down at such an efficient clip.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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