3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football at West Virginia (Oct. 12, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State has bought itself a little wiggle room in the Big 12 football championship race with its 2-0 start in league play, but that would vanish with a loss to West Virginia.

And ISU’s not looking to back into a chance for a first outright conference title, either, so this game looms large as the Cyclones seek to make history. So a loss wouldn’t be disastrous, but it would amount to a mild reality check.

ISU still hasn’t proven it’s a championship-caliber team and it's eager to do so. The Cyclones opened as three-point favorites, which essentially means Las Vegas oddsmakers would consider this a pick-em game on a neutral field.

ISU’s players often talk about how this is a “special” team, and if the Cyclones hope to keep that moniker in place, they must find a way to win in a tough road environment.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones (5-0, 2-0) against the Mountaineers (3-2, 2-0) in Saturday’s 7 p.m. game in Morgantown (Fox).

1. Mind the gaps

West Virginia’s classic-style offense attacks opposing defenses from every angle.

It starts with well-designed runs by tailbacks Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, and quarterback Garrett Greene. Play-action pass opportunities then present themselves — along with a handful of well-timed deep shots if the Mountaineers’ top receivers are in one-on-one coverage with no apparent safety help.

It’s nearly impossible to stop this scheme when it’s crisply executed, so Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock will need his group to be gap-sound at all times — never out of place in running or passing situations. Heacock and his staff also are famous for in-game and halftime adjustments that successfully address problems quickly, so expect a chess match between Heacock and West Virginia’s second-year offensive coordinator, Chad Scott.

2. Punch, reach, grab the football

After struggling for several seasons to consistently produce turnovers, the Cyclones’ defense has cracked the code.

ISU ranked top-10 nationally in turnover margin last season and currently ranks sixth among FBS teams at plus-seven. The Cyclones have forced at least one turnover in every game this season — and they’ve collected multiple takeaways three times.

It starts with a talented and opportunistic secondary that’s snared eight interceptions this season. Cornerback Darien Porter, who’s expected to return from a one-game absence due to injury, is tied with fellow corner Jontez Williams and safety Jeremiah Cooper for the team lead in picks with two. Safeties Beau Freyler and Malik Verdon have each intercepted one pass — and Verdon’s also forced a fumble.

West Virginia is tied for 101st nationally in turnover margin, so opportunities should once again present themselves to force a turnover or two.

3. Maintain run game momentum

A combination of improved offensive line play and a potent three-tailback rotation of Jaylon Jackson (a transfer from Eastern Michigan), Carson Hansen and Abu Sama has helped the Cyclones rack up 200-plus rushing yards for three straight games for the first time since 2021.

Jackson is averaging a team-best 6.1 yards per carry and also is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game. He’s emerged as a potential lead back, but Hansen and Sama both produce enough big plays to remain firmly in the rotation. They average 5.1 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per carry, respectively. West Virginia’s been solid against the run, ranking sixth in the Big 12 (130.2 yards per game), but has struggled in pass defense (11th in the Big 12, 233.4 yards per game).

So ISU’s first-year offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser may have to pass early to loosen up the Mountaineers’ front seven.

Prediction for Iowa State at West Virginia

The Mountaineers’ running back duo of White and Donaldson — along with dual-threat quarterback Greene — will sap the Cyclones’ strength on the defensive side of the football, but I’m convinced the Cyclones will continue to deploy a balanced attack offensively.

Toss in Ben Brahmer, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel’s big-play capabilities in the passing game — and in Noel’s case, the return game — and ISU looks to keep its unbeaten season alive.

The Cyclones do all the right things in the margins and escape Morgantown with a crucial win.

Iowa State 27, West Virginia 24

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com