Campaign Almanac: Another analyst says Iowa's 1st and 3rd District races are now toss-ups

Another non-partisan elections analyst has forecast a tightening race in Iowa’s two most competitive congressional districts.

Non-partisan election forecaster The Cook Political Report moved Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional district races from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”

The ratings shift follows a surge in spending by campaigns and outside groups, and recent polling showing the presidential race appears to have narrowed significantly in Iowa after Democratic President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign in July and Vice President Kamala Harris secured the party's nomination.

A September Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Republican former President Donald Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points after he'd previously led Biden by 18 percentage points.

In a state-of-the-race memo published 50 days out from the Nov. 5 election, the Iowa Democratic Party claims that excitement in Harris’ candidacy and successful fundraising “has sent a jolt of electricity through Iowa Democrats.”

Last week, Inside Elections, a non-partisan newsletter covering House, Senate & gubernatorial campaigns, changed its forecast in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd districts from “Tilt Republican” to “Toss-up.”

Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state lawmaker and University of Iowa law professor, is challenging Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a rematch from 2022.

Miller-Meeks is running for re-election to a third term to represent the 20-county district that includes Iowa City, Davenport and rural southeast Iowa.

"In House races across the Midwest, Harris appears to be matching Biden's 2020 margin — or in some places, even gaining some ground," Erin Covey, Cook Political Report's House Editor, wrote in her analysis. "That's particularly true in Iowa's 1st and 3rd Districts, held by GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. We're moving both districts, currently rated Lean Republican, into the Toss Up column. Though the 1st District is slightly more Republican leaning than the 3rd, Miller-Meeks is a uniquely weak incumbent."

Miller-Meeks, who previously served in the Iowa Senate, ran for the U.S. House three times before winning in 2020 by a margin of just six votes. Though she defeated Bohannan by 6.7 percentage points, 52.6 to 45.9 percent, in 2022 to win re-election, voters in the southeast Iowa district have never really warmed to Miller-Meeks, while Bohannan has been running an effective campaign, according to Covey.

Miller-Meeks fended off a primary challenge in June against underfunded challenger David Pautsch, who came within a surprisingly close 12 points of the GOP incumbent, taking 44 percent of the vote. The Davenport prayer breakfast organizer attacked Miller-Meeks for supporting same-sex marriage, foreign aid packages and abortion ban exceptions.

Both parties now plan to spend millions on the race. The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ major super PAC, is airing ads hitting Bohannan for criticizing Iowa Republicans’ pro-law enforcement legislation in 2021. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hitting Miller-Meeks, a former practicing ophthalmologist and licensed physician, for cosponsoring the Life at Conception Act.

Meeks appeared on Fox News Monday to discuss the competitive race and underscore the importance of having a Republican majority in Congress to secure the U.S.-Mexico border, lower inflation and energy prices, and support law enforcement and a potential second Trump presidency.

“Our polling shows that it is close and this is no surprise to us,” Miller-Meeks said of the millions being spent on ads attacking her by Democratic groups.

The elections analyst also moved Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District race between freshman Republican incumbent Zach Nunn and Democrat Lanon Baccam to a “Toss Up.” Nunn narrowly won the district in 2022, ousting Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne by less than a percentage point. Baccam, a former USDA official, has also proven to be a strong fundraiser and has outspent Nunn on the airwaves.

The 3rd district includes the Des Moines metro area and rural south central Iowa.

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Miller-Meeks and Bohannan will debate later this month on Iowa PBS, the network recently announced.

The debate has been scheduled for 8 p.m. Oct. 21 at Iowa PBS studios in Johnston.

“Iowa Press” host O. Kay Henderson will moderate with two yet unnamed Iowa political reporters. The debate will air live on statewide Iowa PBS and be streamed on iowapbs.org, YouTube and Facebook.

House Democrats launch billboards over Project 2025

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House Democrats' campaign arm is launching billboards in battleground races, including Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts, blasting Project 2025 in an attempt to tie Republicans on the ballot to the conservative blueprint for a second Trump presidency.

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly disavowed and denied any links to the plan drafted by the Heritage Foundation, with many Republicans also distancing themselves from it, despite it being led and developed by former Trump administration officials.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced a five-figure billboard campaign spanning 27 House districts as part of a closing message to voters less than a month out from the Nov. 5 election.

The billboards go after Project 2025's calls to restrict abortion access.

Bohannan, her campaign and the DCCC have made misleading statements about Miller-Meeks’ record on abortion, claiming she “paved the way” for Iowa's six-week abortion ban and would ban all abortions nationwide with no exceptions.

Miller-Meeks did not serve in the Iowa Legislature when the abortion law, or a prior version of it, were drafted, debated and passed by lawmakers.

In Congress, Miller-Meeks cosponsored the 2021-22 Life At Conception Act that states life begins at fertilization, granting legal personhood to fetuses and embryos. While the bill — which never made it to the House floor — does not mention abortion, it would undoubtedly have a significant impact on the legality and availability of the medical procedure.

She did not sign on as a sponsor of the resolution in the current Congress. She has said she supports a national 15-week ban on abortion with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother.

Miller-Meeks has consistently voted against abortion access both in the Iowa Senate and in Congress, with some measures outlining exceptions. Others, like the life beginning at conception bill and a constitutional amendment declaring there is no right to abortion in Iowa, do not.

If elected, Bohannan has vowed she would vote to put abortion rights protections that existed under Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that had affirmed a constitutional right to abortion, into federal law.

Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau