3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Minnesota in 2024

IOWA CITY — The Floyd of Rosedale rivalry has featured no shortage of down-to-the-wire football games in recent history.

Last year was a two-point Minnesota win. The year before that was a three-point Iowa win. The 2021 game was a five-point Iowa win. Going all the way back to 2015, seven of the last nine matchups have been decided by 10 or fewer points.

“That just kind of tells you the nature of the series and what it's all about,” Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz said this week. “My guess is this game will probably fall in line with that. As I said, they have a very good football team, they're veteran, play extremely hard, well-coached, and they're playing with a lot of confidence right now, and rightfully so.”

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to take the Floyd of Rosedale trophy back to Iowa City:

Which team better establishes the run?

Saturday’s game will pit two Big Ten foes with strong run-first identities.

Kaleb Johnson headlines Iowa’s rushing attack. Johnson leads the country with 479 rushing yards while averaging 7.9 yards per carry and is responsible for six of Iowa’s 10 offensive touchdowns so far this season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has Darius Taylor and Marcus Major. Taylor has taken the bulk of the Gophers’ carries in the last two games after missing the season opener against North Carolina.

Taylor was an all-Big Ten honorable mention last year after rushing for 799 yards in six games and averaging 5.8 yards per carry as a true freshman.

Each team’s rushing attack will not be the only factor on Saturday — after all, Iowa overcame Mohamed Ibrahim’s 263-yard performance last time the game was in Minneapolis — but Iowa has yet to lose to a P.J. Fleck-led Minnesota team when having the advantage in rushing yards.

How well does the offensive line protect Cade McNamara?

The correlation between better pass protection and better results from quarterback Cade McNamara has been clear for the Hawkeyes through the first three games of the season.

When Iowa keeps McNamara clean, he has completed 71 percent of his passes this season, according to Pro Football Focus. When he is under pressure, his completion percentage is only 42.9 percent.

Fortunately for Iowa, McNamara has been kept clean on 71.9 percent of dropbacks, per PFF, which is up from 68.3 percent in 2023. (Most Big Ten quarterbacks are between 68 and 78 percent so far this year.)

But Iowa’s pass protection has not been perfect. The Hawkeyes allowed two sacks last week against a Troy defense that did not have any sacks before that, including one where Troy only rushed three defenders.

Minnesota’s defense, with seven sacks through three games, should pose more of a threat this week than Troy did last week.

Who wins the special teams battle?

Especially in a series as competitive as the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry has been, one special teams play can often be the difference-maker.

Minnesota learned this the hard way in Week 1 against North Carolina when its kicker Dragan Kesich missed a potential game-winning 47-yard field goal as time expired in the Gophers’ 19-17 loss.

Kesich was the Big Ten Kicker of the Year in 2023, though, and punter Mark Crawford was an all-Big Ten honorable mention.

“I'd be remiss if I didn't mention their kicker and punter,“ Ferentz said as he talked about Minnesota in the opening remarks of his Tuesday news conference. ”They have two outstanding specialists. … They're really good in that area.“

Iowa’s Drew Stevens, meanwhile, is 5-for-5 on field goals in 2024. Freshman punter Rhys Dakin has averaged 42 yards per punt, with seven punts inside the 20-yard line versus two touchbacks. Punt coverage was an issue for Iowa in Week 3 as Troy returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown.

Prediction for Iowa vs. Minnesota

Iowa appears to be the superior team on paper, but as has often been the case in Iowa-Minnesota games, this has the potential to be another down-to-the-wire finish.

Iowa 21, Minnesota 17

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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