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3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Iowa State in 2024
Hawkeyes’ receiving corps to face bigger test in Week 2 against Cyclones
IOWA CITY — As Kirk Ferentz approaches his 25th Cy-Hawk game as Iowa’s head football coach, he has no shortage of respect for the annual intrastate rivalry.
“It’s a good game for our state,” Ferentz said. “It's good for everybody if they're involved in football and like football. On top of it, It's probably a little bit underappreciated outside of our state in terms of the intensity of the rivalry and the way the players go after it each and every time.”
The numbers back that up.
The last six Cy-Hawk games have been decided by 10 or fewer points, and the road team has won the last four games of the series. That includes Iowa State’s 10-7 win at Kinnick in 2022, when the Cyclones went on a game-altering 99-yard touchdown drive in the second half.
Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to keep the Cy-Hawk Trophy in Iowa City in 2024:
How quickly can Iowa’s offense hit its stride?
Iowa found its rhythm offensively against Illinois State, but it took most of the first half for the Hawkeyes to get to that point. (None of Iowa’s first six drives exceeded 30 yards.)
The Hawkeyes could get away with a slow offensive start against Illinois State — a team that lost its previous two games against FBS opponents, 38-0 (to Wisconsin in 2022) and 28-0 (to Western Michigan in 2021).
The margin for error will be much slimmer, however, against a power-conference foe like Iowa State. The Cyclones are 42-5 in the Matt Campbell era when they lead at halftime.
Does Iowa’s secondary hinder Rocco Becht again in 2024?
Rocco Becht will likely be one of the better quarterbacks the Hawkeyes will face in 2024.
Becht completed 62.9 percent of his passes last year while throwing 23 touchdowns versus eight interceptions in his first season as the Cyclones’ starter, and he completed 76.9 percent of his passes in last week’s season opener.
One of Becht’s worst games last year was against Iowa, when he went 23-of-44 (52.3 percent) with one touchdown and one interception. He did not have any 20-plus-yard completions against the Hawkeyes.
If Iowa’s secondary — with four of five starters back from last year — can do the same in 2024, it would go a long way toward a Cy-Hawk victory. Since the start of the 2023 season, Iowa State is 7-1 when Becht does not throw an interception. When he has at least one pick, the Cyclones’ record drops to 1-5.
Iowa’s receiving corps vs. Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense
Iowa State’s secondary, while not quite at the same elite level as its Iowa counterpart, has executed at a high level in recent years. The Cyclones’ 6.6 passing yards allowed per attempt in 2023 was the best in the Big 12.
Malik Verdon and Jeremiah Cooper are among the players leading a secondary that could again be a threat in 2024. National college football writer Phil Steele ranked the unit ahead of the season as second-best in the Big 12 behind Kansas State.
Iowa’s receiving corps showed improvement in Week 1, with true freshman Reece Vander Zee and Northwestern transfer Jacob Gill putting together strong Hawkeye debuts. Vander Zee had five catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns, and Gill had three catches for 46 yards and one touchdown.
Week 2 will be a test for the Hawkeyes as they face much more of a defensive challenge against Iowa State than they did against Illinois State.
Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction
This could be another nail-biting Cy-Hawk finish, but with a stalwart defense and improving offense, the Hawkeyes appear to have the advantage on Saturday.
Iowa 20, Iowa State 17
Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com
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