3 keys, prediction for Iowa State vs. North Dakota: Cyclones should thrive offensively

AMES — Iowa State is a 27.5-point favorite Saturday and should be able to pull away from a proud but outmanned North Dakota football team.

So ISU Coach Matt Campbell and his staff will be looking to firm up the depth chart in advance of next weekend’s Cy-Hawk Series game at No. 25 Iowa. A loss, of course, would be unthinkable for an ISU team that harbors hopes of competing for a Big 12 title this season.

The Cyclones will seek to prove a highly competitive fall camp has produced the commitment to precision and detail required in order to maintain those hopes throughout the season. A sloppy performance would understandably dampen the optimism of ISU’s fan base, but wouldn’t damage those hopes of success once conference play comes around.

In other words, style points matter little in this season opener — but scoring a few could point to further success as the season wears on.

Here are three keys for Iowa State against North Dakota

1. Win decisively up front

Iowa State’s offensive line is deeper, but will it be better this season? Saturday that unit has a chance to show it’s turned a corner in terms of consistent play in passing and running situations.

The Fighting Hawks return one starter to their defensive line and the Cyclones feature six offensive linemen with significant starting experience, so if they struggle in the trenches, that’s a troubling portend for what could come next Saturday at No. 25 Iowa and beyond.

ISU’s O-line is a bit banged up coming out of fall camp, but that shouldn’t matter against an undersized and inexperienced FCS D-line. Conversely, the Cyclones’ defensive line faces an inexperienced group on the other side. This should be a massive mismatch in that area if ISU executes at it’s usual high level defensively.

2. Let Rocco roll

The Cyclones often stubbornly try to establish the run early in games, even when opponents put eight or nine defenders in the box.

That conservative strategy slowly shifted last season as sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht built confidence and trust with his teammates as a first-year starter. The 6-foot-1, 210-pounder threw 10 touchdown passes to just one interception in the final four games of 2023 and can tap elite pass-catching talent at any time this season. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both are first-team All-Big 12-caliber receivers and Ben Brahmer is similarly skilled at the tight end position.

The Cyclones backfield features multiple players who can make plays in the passing game, so even in check-down situations, Becht should be able to find explosive options all day.

Simply put, ISU should be able to put up big numbers across the board offensively, but if familiar struggles in the run game crop up, Becht’s proven he can carry the offense via the passing game.

3. Flummox the quarterback

North Dakota’s starting quarterback, Simon Romfo, enters Saturday with a 100 percent career completion rate. That’s because the 5-11, 190-pound junior has thrown and completed a grand total of three passes as a college football player — and now he’s ascending the biggest stage (by far) he’s encountered.

The Fighting Hawks rely on toughness and precision in the running game to open things up offensively, but that should be difficult to establish against an ISU defense that’s consistently top-40 nationally in stopping the run. If Romfo is forced into a lot of second-and-long and third-and-long situations, the Cyclones are likely to force multiple turnovers.

An unproven quarterback against ISU’s defense rarely plays clean football and even though the Cyclones’ pass rush was average at best last season, they have the playmakers to make Romfo uncomfortable from start to finish.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. North Dakota

The Fighting Hawks have become a formidable FCS program, but they must replace most of their offensive and defensive lines. That spells trouble for them, as the Cyclones have depth in both of those areas.

ISU should be able to thrive offensively all day — and if North Dakota loads the box, Becht will wreak havoc through the air.

Iowa State 41, North Dakota 10

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com