3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Illinois State

IOWA CITY — Iowa football does not need to look far back in time for a reminder to avoid taking FCS games for granted.

“A couple years ago, we were in a dogfight with an FCS program in South Dakota State,” defensive end Deontae Craig said this week.

It was an infamously low-scoring dogfight — Iowa and South Dakota State had as many punts (21) as completed passes — as Iowa eked out a 7-3 win to open the 2022 season.

In Iowa’s first game against an FCS opponent since the defensive showdown that practically took the “O” out of “Iowa,” the Hawkeyes do not appear to have as menacing of an opponent.

Illinois State has exceeded six wins once in the last eight seasons. The Redbirds also did not score a point in either of their last two games against FBS opponents — a 38-0 loss to Wisconsin in 2022 and a 28-0 loss to Western Michigan in 2021.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to avoid an upset in Week 1:

How effective is Iowa’s passing game?

This will be an important key for the Hawkeyes not only on Saturday, but also the rest of the season.

Iowa has not completed more than 60 percent of its passes in a season since 2015 — before Cade McNamara, now a sixth-year senior, was old enough to possess a driver’s license in his home state of Nevada.

Last year in particular, Iowa completed a mere 48.9 percent of its passes, which ranked 129th out of 130 FBS teams. Iowa was the lone 10-win team in college football to complete fewer than 56 percent of its passes. Only five others reached the 10-win mark while completing fewer than 60 percent of their passes.

Going back to Iowa’s 2022 close call against South Dakota State, the Hawkeyes’ 44 percent completion rate was among the factors that allowed the Jackrabbits to remain within striking distance for the entire game.

Does Iowa’s offense take care of the ball?

Taking care of the ball would go a long way in preventing Illinois State from lingering in Saturday’s season opener.

To use the 2022 South Dakota State game again as an example, had it not been for a Leshon Williams fumble on the SDSU 7-yard line, Iowa might have had a more comfortable 12-3 lead (or at least an 8-3 lead) going into the fourth quarter instead of a 5-3 lead.

In 2023 games where Illinois State forced at least one turnover, the Redbirds outscored their opponents, 220-109. When the Redbirds failed to force a turnover, their scoring advantage went down to 141-116.

Does Iowa’s defensive front hold Mason King at bay?

Mason King emerged as a key part of Illinois State’s offense in 2023.

The former Northern Illinois running back racked up 983 rushing yards in his first season with Illinois State while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He had 100-plus rushing yards in half of his games.

Iowa’s defense allowed only two running backs to cross the 100-yard threshold last season — Michigan State’s Nate Carter and Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson. But when it does happen, the results have usually not been favorable for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 26-53 in the Ferentz era when the opposing team has a 100-yard rusher.

Prediction for Iowa vs. Illinois State

Overlook FCS opponents at your own risk, but Illinois State should not be too much of a challenge for the veteran-heavy Hawkeyes on Saturday.

Iowa 24, Illinois State 3

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.