Steppe’s 2024 preseason AP ballot: Georgia at top, with pair of Big Ten teams lurking at No. 2 and 3

IOWA CITY — Preseason polls are far from an exact science.

Last year’s AP preseason poll had 18 of the 25 teams that were in the final AP Poll, and it turned out to be only one spot off on Notre Dame, Alabama, Michigan and Iowa.

But Missouri (from unranked to No. 8) and USC (from No. 6 to unranked) were among the reminders last year that these are essentially educated guesses.

Returning production, transfer portal additions/losses, quarterback situations, past results and coaching changes were among the many factors I took into consideration while putting together my preseason ballot.

But we still have not seen a single snap of the 2024 college football season. Some of these predictions may age like fine wine, and others may age like spoiled milk.

It is an honor, by the way, to be one of the 62 voters across the country (and only one in the state of Iowa) for this year’s AP Poll. It is not a responsibility I take lightly, and hopefully these columns add a level of transparency to my weekly ballot.

There are no major surprises in my top four — Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas. Georgia has lost only twice in the last three seasons. Ohio State is loaded with future NFL talent. Oregon and Texas also have the talent to be national championship contenders, especially on offense.

Other voters may be more keen on Alabama than I am ahead of the 2024 season. But I see substantial question marks — major losses via the transfer portal and NFL Draft along with Nick Saban’s retirement — and consequently have the Crimson Tide at No. 7 on my preseason ballot.

I, instead, am more bullish on Ole Miss at No. 5. Lane Kiffin’s group is coming off an 11-2 season and has an abundance of returning experience, including quarterback Jaxson Dart, wide receiver Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn.

I also may be more optimistic than some of my peers about Missouri, which is No. 10 on my ballot. With an experienced quarterback and one of the best receiving corps in the country, the Tigers could pose a major threat in the SEC again this year.

Further down on my ballot, No. 12 would normally be low for a reigning national champion, but Michigan faces some unfavorable circumstances this year. The Wolverines have to reckon with a newish coach, new quarterback, entirely new starting offensive line and an unforgiving schedule.

Memphis might not end up on others’ ballots, but the American Athletic Conference preseason favorite has an enviable path to the fifth and final College Football Playoff automatic bid. Seth Hanigan will be in his fourth season as the Memphis’ starting quarterback, and two of the Tigers’ three losses in 2023 were by one possession and against teams that ended the year ranked.

My full ballot is below. The preseason poll will be released Monday at 11 a.m. Central time.

John Steppe’s preseason AP ballot

Others under consideration: Louisville, NC State, Iowa State

Preseason AP Poll (released Monday)

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

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