‘Not out of the woods’: Severe weather season to continue after record start

One-hundred six tornadoes have touched down across Iowa so far this year, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. That’s more than double the number the state typically sees in a single year.

The National Weather Service’s Quad Cities bureau, which covers 36 counties including 21 in Eastern Iowa, has issued 262 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings to start the year — more than any year prior, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

“It’s been a very active season thus far for our forecast area,” said Rich Kinney, NWS Quad Cities warning coordination meteorologist. “We’ve had a number of events and got off to a relatively early start with even a couple of tornadoes in the month of February.”

And the year’s not over.

Since 1980, Iowa has experienced more tornadoes in June than any other month, according to Kinney.

“Just based on past history we’re certainly not out of the woods in terms of additional severe weather, including tornadoes,” Kinney said. “As we head later into the summer, we have other types of severe weather, including straight line winds, become more of a factor.”

The occurrence of severe weather this year may be tied to abnormal rainfall and heat earlier in the year, according to State Climatologist Justin Glisan. Meteorological spring, which lasts through March, April and May, in Iowa this year was the sixth wettest and 16th warmest in 152 years of records.

“When you’re seeing warm and wet in the climatologist outlooks getting into spring, there was a suggestion there of a more active season given that you need moisture, lift and instability to cause thunderstorms,” Glisan said.

It’s not just the 106 tornadoes that have affected Iowa this year. According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, Iowa also has had 337 reports of severe wind and 174 reports of severe hail as of June 18.

“We’re seeing in the modeling with a warmer atmosphere (and) more water vapor availability, more instability is possible,” Glisan said. “Days in which a severe weather environment is possible, we’ve also seen those particularly in the April, May, June time frame as well.”

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Glisan said there are “fits and starts” to climatological data indicating more severe weather is occurring. He pointed to six derechos impacting the state since 2020, but for the six years prior to 2020, there weren’t any.

Iowa’s most recent derecho occurred in Eastern Iowa on May 24 and included 18 tornadoes.

Aid to impacted Iowans

Iowa has been approved for two presidential disaster declarations this year, both of which are currently accepting applications for the affected counties in central and western Iowa.

More than $500,000 was provided to 155 applicants in eight counties for storms on April 26 and 27. Damage from severe weather and flooding that impacted four counties from May 20 through May 31 has resulted in more than $600,000 being approved for 180 applicants.

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Iowa has not seen multiple presidential disaster declarations since 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic and the August derecho. The last time Iowa saw multiple storm-related presidential disaster declarations was 2018. The state has not had more than two issued since 2014.

At the state level, Gov. Kim Reynolds has issued 11 storm related disaster proclamations this year covering 53 counties. Residents whose household income is at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty level are able to apply for Iowa Individual Disaster Assistance Grant Programs within 45 days of the proclamation.

Data changes

Daryl Herzmann, a systems analyst at Iowa State University and creator of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, maintains an archive of NWS watches, warnings and advisories. He said the kind of data available 20 to 30 years ago was different from what’s available today.

“Prior to (2005) it was very haphazard and prior to about the early 1990s it was even more haphazard,” Herzmann said. “The preliminary issue is that there are no authoritative archives out there, which is one of the reasons I [created] it.”

The NWS also has changed its methodology and criteria for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the past 30 years. Those warnings are now issued in a polygon shape, instead of by entire counties, and severe thunderstorms must have 1 inch hail, instead of 0.75 inches, for a warning to be issued.

Herzmann said there also are more opportunities to issue warnings now because of more and higher quality data.

“There’s many more personal weather stations, the radar information is much better quality and higher resolution and faster updating,” he said. “There’s so many more people out storm chasing these days and doing real time streaming and reporting.

“The ability of the weather service to collect reports from very rural parts of Iowa were much more limited,” he said. “You weren’t getting like some farmer’s personal weather station they have on their house.”

However, Herzmann said the comparison to data in 2024 is valid despite this type of data having “some apples and oranges problems.”

“It’s proper, and not at all a stretch to say 2024 is easily the most active for the year to date period,” Herzmann said.

Being weather aware

In preparation for severe weather, Kinney said Eastern Iowa residents, especially those who live in mobile homes, should have a practiced safety plan, multiple ways to get severe weather information and keep close family and friends informed about impending storms.

“We all remember the derecho back in 2020 — that hit the Cedar Rapids area so hard — and one of the lessons there was there wasn’t any single one fail-safe method of getting warnings,” Kinney said. “Having multiple ways to get information can really help keep you safe.”

Kinney also noted that some advice — liking taking cover under an overpass during a tornado — has changed over the years.

“When you’re forced into those situations, that is not ideal and sometimes there is just no good solution in terms of taking shelter, but hopefully through preparedness, planning and awareness, folks can avoid getting themselves in those situations,” Kinney said.

Comments: (319) 265-6828; cleo.westin@thegazette.com