Iowa figures to draw an NCAA women’s basketball tournament 1-seed Sunday

IOWA CITY — In the University of Iowa’s rich women’s basketball annals, No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament have been uncommon.

And not very fruitful.

The Hawkeyes are expected to earn a rare 1-seed Sunday, when the NCAA bracket is released (7 p.m., ESPN).

First- and second-round games in Iowa City will be either Friday and Sunday, or Saturday and Monday.

“I think we do deserve a No. 1 seed,” Iowa Coach Lisa Bluder said last Sunday, after the Hawkeyes won the Big Ten tournament for the third consecutive year.

“If we don't get it, oh, well. It's OK. That's life. We can't control that. But I think it would just mean a lot to our program and how far we've come to have that recognition.”

Top-ranked South Carolina (32-0) is a lock for one of the four No. 1 seeds. The other three top seeds are likely to come from this cluster of four teams:

* Texas (NET 3): 30-4 overall, 14-4 Big 12 (2nd), conference tournament champion, No. 5 AP.

* Stanford (NET 4): 28-5 overall, 15-3 Pac-12 (1st), conference tournament runner-up, No. 4 AP.

* Iowa (NET 5): 29-4 overall, 15-3 Big Ten (T-2nd), conference tournament champion, No. 2 AP.

* USC (NET 10): 26-5 overall, 13-5 Pac-12 (T-2nd), conference tournament champion, No. 3 AP.

For what it’s worth, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme issues the No. 1 seeds to South Carolina, Iowa, Stanford and USC.

If Iowa is a 1-seed, it will face a 16-seed in the first round, with 8- and 9-seeds coming to Iowa City for the other first-rounder.

With an NCAA field of 68 teams, there will be six 16-seeds, four of which will play “First Four” games, two days before the main draw begins. So there is a 50/50 chance that Iowa City will house a “First Four” game, with the winner advancing to face the Hawkeyes in the first round.

If the Hawkeyes draw a 2-seed, they’ll meet a 15-seed in the opening game, with 7- and 10-seeds squaring off.

According to Creme’s latest bracketology, projected 7-seeds are North Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee and Creighton.

Projected 8-seeds are Nebraska, Florida State, Iowa State and Michigan State.

Projected 9-seeds are Kansas, Alabama, UNLV and Princeton.

Projected 10-seeds are Middle Tennessee, Michigan, Maryland and Miami (Fla.).

Four of those teams in the 7-through-10 pack — Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan and Maryland — are Big Ten rivals, and as such, are extremely unlikely to be assigned to the Iowa City subregion.

Iowa State, on the other hand, is a possibility. After all, Drake was assigned to Carver in 2019.

Whether a 1-seed or a 2-seed, Iowa should be money in its first game. Since the NCAA tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1994, 1-seeds are 115-1 in the first round; the 2-seeds are 116-0.

Regionals are at Albany, N.Y., and Portland, Ore. The Final Four is at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.

Iowa will make its 30th NCAA appearance, its sixth consecutive.

The Hawkeyes have been 1-seeds twice, and neither ended well.

In 1988, they advanced to the Elite Eight, where they were bounced by Long Beach State, on the 49ers’ home court.

In 1992, they earned a first-round bye, then were stunned in Round 2 at Carver by Southwest Missouri State, 61-60, in overtime.

Both of Iowa’s Final Four teams (1993 and 2023) were 2-seeds.

Last year, the Hawkeyes made it all the way to Dallas, upset South Carolina in the semifinals, lost to LSU in the championship game and finished 31-7.

“Everybody knew how much we lost last year, and everybody kept talking about how much we lost,” Bluder said. “We kept saying, ‘Look how much we have. We have a lot.’

“Hannah (Stuelke) was ready to burst on the scene. You have the best player in America (in Caitlin Clark). Kate (Martin) and Gabbie (Marshall), God bless them, they come back for another year because they feel something special. Syd Affolter just kept getting better and better as the year went on. Kylie (Feuerbach), a year after her surgery now.

“So, yeah, I think we just focused on what we have instead of what we didn't have. We felt like we had a good team.”

Iowa’s NCAA resume

Record: 29-4

Big Ten: 15-3 (T-2nd)

Big Ten tournament: Champion (beat Penn State, 95-62; beat Michigan, 95-68; beat Nebraska, 94-89, OT)

NET ranking: 5

Last 10: 8-2, including six-game winning streak

Quad 1: 14-4. Quad 2: 8-0. Quad 3: 4-0. Quad 4: 3-0.

Best wins: Ohio State (H), Kansas State (N), Indiana (H), Virginia Tech (N)

Worst losses: None would qualify as “bad,” but an overtime defeat to Nebraska (A), NET 26, would be classified as the “worst.”

What they’re saying: According to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, Iowa is a 1-seed (as of Thursday) in one of the two Albany regions and will host No. 16 Sacred Heart or Holy Cross (which would play a First Four game in Iowa City two days before facing the Hawkeyes), with 8-seed Florida State and 9-seed Alabama also coming to Carver.

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com