Caucus turnout shows Iowans care, Republican state party chair says

DES MOINES — National news organizations that called the winner of the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential precinct caucuses did not violate any journalist ethics, Republican Party of Iowa chairman Jeff Kaufmann concedes.

But they violated the spirit of the caucuses themselves, he asserts.

In an interview Friday with The Gazette, Kaufmann discussed the third caucus cycle of his tenure as state party chairman: how the caucuses ran on Monday night, what the results mean for the future of the caucuses, whether low turnout will hurt Iowa Republicans’ first-in-the-nation status, and those quick caucus night calls by national news organizations.

Former President Donald Trump won the first-in-the-nation caucuses in historic fashion, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican candidate to surpass 50 percent support, and by beating the field by more than 30 percentage points.

Trump won 51 percent of the votes cast by 110,000 Iowa Republican caucusgoers, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was a distant second at 21 percent and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley was third at 19 percent.

Winner declared early

The Associated Press, CNN, Fox News, NBC News and other national news organizations called the caucuses for former President Donald Trump at roughly 7:30 p.m. Iowa time Monday, only a half-hour after the caucuses started and, Kaufmann said, before some precincts had completed their presidential preference process and even while some people were still standing in line to get into their precinct.

Kaufmann said he understands those news organizations may have been competing to be among the first to call the caucus winner. But that quick call upset Kaufmann because it came before some Iowans had made their choice in the caucuses, a choice that can be swayed at the precinct level by those speaking on behalf of their candidate.

“We’re not dealing with any issue other than they wanted to beat each other in the game. And I get that. I understand that rush,” Kaufmann said. “But they all know the spirit of our caucus. They all know that the difference between a caucus and a primary is that in the caucus, you have a conversation ahead of time, people that are undecided can come on in hear one more time. …

“To call the race that early, when we have people still in line — did it change anything? No, it didn’t. Did they break any ethical rules of journalism? No, they didn’t. But they also wouldn’t have been breaking any ethical rules of journalists if they would have respected the nature of the caucus and held off” reporting the results so soon.

National news organizations use extensive data gathering methods to enable them to project election winners before the official results are fully tabulated. During elections, those organizations do not declare winners until after the polls are closed, to avoid influencing voters before they have cast a ballot.

The Iowa caucuses, however, do not have an exact time at which the presidential process is completed, creating a gray area for when news organizations can feel comfortable projecting a winner.

Kaufmann said 7:30 p.m. was too early. He said the news organizations should have waited until more of the results were officially reported, saying that only 400 precincts out of more than 1,600 statewide had been officially reported when the call was made.

“I don’t know when, I can’t give an exact time because all of these caucuses are run locally. But I can tell you that doing it as fast as they did, with 400 reporting, is not in the spirit of our caucus,” Kaufmann said.

Caucus turnout

There were 110,298 votes cast by Iowa Republicans in Monday night’s caucuses. That is a turnout of 15 percent of registered Iowa Republican voters, including those who were registered but did not vote in 2022, according to state voter registration data.

That turnout is down compared to the record-setting total of nearly 187,000 votes cast in 2016 and also fewer than 2008 (roughly 119,000) and 2012 (roughly 121,000).

Kaufmann said Monday night’s turnout should be taken as a sign of Iowa Republicans’ dedication to the caucuses, given the frigid temperatures that evening — wind chills were in the range of 30 degrees below zero — and the fact that Trump was such a heavy favorite in the caucuses.

“If you really want to look at this objectively and put this on a bar graph, you will see that it’s 2016 that is an anomaly,” Kaufmann said.

“But you know what? If they want to try to make that case, they’re going to have to make that case and somehow explain 110,000 human beings going out with negative 30 wind chill in an election where the polls have consistently said the winner has this in the bag. There is no way to frame that fact, in and of itself, any other way than Iowans truly care about this.”

Remaining first

Kaufmann said he believes intimate, retail politics and grassroots campaign organizations remain critical to success in the Iowa caucuses despite Trump’s parachute-style of campaigning in Iowa this cycle and in 2016, when he finished a close second to Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

Kaufmann said while Trump may have campaigned in Iowa far less often than other candidates and focused on big rallies over shaking hands and answering questions in Pizza Ranch restaurants, he believes that style of campaigning and organizing will remain crucial in future caucuses.

And Kaufmann said he believes Iowa Republicans will retain their envied, leadoff position in the nation’s presidential nominating process. He said he believes Iowa will be able to convince national party leaders that the state deserves to remain first.

And, Kaufmann said, he genuinely hopes Iowa Democrats are able to recoup their first-in-the-nation status, which was removed this cycle when national Democratic Party leaders changed their party’s nominating calendar.

“I just think all of the criticisms that we’ve heard through the years, I really think Monday night dispels a lot of them,” Kaufmann said. “And hopefully … who knows? Maybe in 2028 there will be both parties out here.”

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com