Campaign Almanac: Haley pulls ahead of DeSantis, with Trump maintaining wide lead in new Iowa Poll

Former President Donald Trump maintained his wide lead among likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, while former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley pulled ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just days before Monday’s high-stakes Iowa GOP caucuses that could help determine whether either candidate has a viable shot at upending Trump’s path to the nomination.

The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday night shows Trump holding a nearly 30-point lead among likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, while Haley moved ahead of DeSantis in a tight race for second.

The top line results from the poll: Trump at 48 percent, Haley at 20 percent, DeSantis at 16 percent and Ramaswamy at 8 percent.

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Haley’s upward momentum comes despite a decline in her overall popularity with Iowa voters. Haley’s favorability ratings fell in the latest poll to 48 percent, from 59 percent. And 46 percent viewed her unfavorably, up from 31 percent.

DeSantis also saw his favorable ratings decline, though 58 percent still view him positively.

The poll also found Haley’s supporters were much less enthusiastic about caucusing for her. A 61 percent majority of Haley backers said they are “mildly enthusiastic” or “not that enthusiastic” about turning out to caucus for her on what is forecast to be a bitterly cold caucus night with a low of around minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit and wind chill values as low as minus 35 degrees.

By contrast, 88 percent of Trump’s supporters said they are “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about caucusing for him, while 62 percent of DeSantis supporters said the same.

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Overall, 55 percent of poll respondents said they will definitely, rather than probably, attend the caucuses on Monday. Among DeSantis supporters, 62 percent said they will definitely attend, compared to 56 percent for Trump supporters and 51 percent for Haley supporters.

Overall, Trump leads with independents who plan to caucus with Republicans, but independents and Democrats make up half of Haley’s backers going into the caucus, according to the poll.

Trump jabs at Haley

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Former President Donald Trump sat down with Iowa Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird for a livestream event Saturday from Des Moines.

Bird endorsed Trump in the fall.

She asked him about primary rival Nikki Haley, who served in his administration as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Bird noted Trump has been critical of Haley’s rhetoric on immigration, highlighting her opposition to a travel ban Trump imposed on several Muslim-majority countries while president — which he’s vowed to reinstate if elected in 2024 — pointing to Haley’s comments in 2015 that Americans shouldn’t describe illegal immigrants as criminals, and falsely claiming Haley opposed the construction of a border wall.

Bird asked Trump: “Given the thousands of unvetted illegals that are coming across our Southern border every day, why are Nikki Haley’s comments dangerous and naive?”

Trump responded by calling Haley “a globalist” who is not aligned with his nationalistic “America First” agenda. He also mentioned former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who suspended his presidential campaign last week, caught on a hot mic saying GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley will “get smoked” in the primary race.

“I don’t think Nikki’s strong enough to be president. I know her very well,” Trump said.

Haley has sharpened her criticisms of Trump in recent weeks saying his countless legal problems are major distractions, and that the country doesn’t need more “chaos” in government.

“We can’t have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. We won’t survive it,” Haley often says on the campaign trail.

Bird, Iowa’s chief legal officer, accused Biden of weaponizing the justice system and committing election interference.

Trump has been indicted by federal grand juries composed of average citizens following investigations that included witness testimony and a trove of evidence over his alleged mishandling of classified documents.

The former president faces a total of 91 felony counts across multiple criminal cases that include conspiracy to defraud the United States and witness tampering over efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Bird also said she didn’t think weather would stop Trump supporters from showing up on caucus night.

“We’re used to it being cold, dark, and snowy in January, but we also remember what it was like when you were president and people are on fire,” she said. “They are going to make it happen on caucus night.”

Ramaswamy responds to Trump brushback

Trump brushed back at Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy on social media, stemming from Ramaswamy's recent insistence that support for Trump would be wasted because "the system" is lined up against him.

The former president took to social media, posting on Truth Social: "Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’ — don't get duped by this. Vote for ‘TRUMP,’ don't waste your vote! Vivek is not MAGA.“

The post stemmed from shirts that Ramaswamy's campaign handed out that say “Save Trump, Vote Vivek.” Ramaswamy reposted a photo with a group of young men wearing them after a recent campaign event in Iowa, which caught Trump’s attention.

On social media and at a the campaign event Thursday in Cedar Rapids, Ramaswamy urged voters to support him as the candidate who will “save Trump” from “these made-up, trumped-up prosecutions.”

Ramaswamy responded to Trump’s post in a statement.

“It’s an unfortunate move by his campaign advisors, I don’t think friendly fire is helpful,” Ramaswamy said. “Donald Trump was the greatest President of the 21st century, and I’m not going to criticize him in response to this late attack.”

Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau