Fact Checker: Gov. Kim Reynolds gets passing grades for Condition of the State claims

Gov. Kim Reynolds’s 2024 Condition of the State address this week was heavy on claims about education in Iowa, but she also talked about the economy and health care challenges facing our state. The Gazette’s Fact Checker team checked nine of those statements — which Reynolds used to bolster some of her key legislative priorities — and gave her A’s, B’s and C’s for accuracy.

Claim: “Iowa students with disabilities are performing below the national average. In the last five years, they’ve ranked 30th or worse on nine of 12 national assessments. Yet, Iowa spends over $5,300 dollars more per-pupil on special education than the national average.”

Analysis: When we asked the Iowa Department of Education for sourcing on this claim, it sent a link to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, which assessed performance of students with disabilities in math and English in fourth and eighth grades. For those four assessments in 2017, 2019 and 2022, Iowa students performed 30th or lower in nine of 12 assessments. However, the scores for all four of the 2022 tests ranked higher than the scores in 2019. For example, reading scores for eighth-graders with disabilities in Iowa were ranked 44th in 2019, but rose to 16th in 2022.

We could not verify the claim about spending because the Education Department did not provide data on its per-pupil spending for special education.

Grade: For the assessment claim, we give Reynolds an A.

Claim: “Children who can’t read by third grade are four times more likely to drop out of high school, which dramatically increases their chances of being arrested, using illegal drugs, and having poor health.”

Analysis: Reynolds is among numerous lawmakers, researchers and reporters who have made the first half of this assertion after a 2012 study by the Anne E. Casey Foundation found “those who do not read proficiently by third grade are four times more likely to leave school without a diploma than proficient readers.”

That research, which relied on a database of 3,975 students born between 1979 and 1989, has not been updated. Its specific findings were that 16 percent of children not reading proficiently by the end of third grade didn’t graduate from high school on time, which was four times the rate of proficient readers.

“The database reports whether students have finished high school by age 19, but does not indicate whether they actually dropped out,” according to the report.

As to the second half of Reynolds’ claim about the impact of dropping out, researchers have found correlation between failure to finish school and arrest — but not causation. “Most of those who claim that a causal link between dropout and incarceration exists do not present very convincing evidence,” according to a 2020 study published in the Justice Policy Journal.

Conversely, the U.S. Department of Justice reports, “The link between academic failure and delinquency, violence, and crime is welded to reading failure.” And the National Assessment of Adult Literacy has reported two-thirds of students who can’t read proficiently by the end of fourth grade end up in jail or on welfare.

Although research has found a “definite link” between teen substance abuse and school performance — including dropout rates — many report the drug use comes before the dropout event, not the other way around.

Regarding health outcomes, the National Center for Biotechnology Information in 2014 reported, “Analyses show that dropout status is associated with increased odds of reporting a major chronic health condition.”

Grade: B, given the aged source material and the lack of clear causation between dropping out and arrest and illicit drug use.

Claim: “Yet 35% of Iowa’s third-graders aren’t reading proficiently.”

Analysis: The state Education Department in 2019 last updated its “math and reading proficiency by grade” report, showing 76 percent of the 31,525 third-graders who took the test in 2018 were proficient — meaning 24 percent were not.

Last year, the Iowa Statewide Assessment of Student Progress reported 34 percent of third-graders were not yet proficient in reading and language/writing skills — with 56 percent qualifying as proficient and 10 percent as advanced.

Grade: A, however the proficiency percentage she cited was for a slightly more broad category than reading.

Claim: “These investments (starting teacher salary increases) will put Iowa in the top-five states for starting pay.”

Analysis: Reynolds made this assertion in unveiling her ask for $96 million to increase starting teacher pay by 50 percent to $50,000 and set a minimum salary of $62,000 for teachers with at least 12 years experience.

The U.S. Department of Education in reporting average, top and starting salaries for teachers across every state in 2023 had Iowa’s average starting salary of $39,208, ranked No. 37. Increasing that by 50 percent would bump it to $58,812 — which would move it into the top spot in the nation, according to the figures

Increasing Iowa’s average starting teacher salary of $39,208 to $50,000 would amount to a 28 percent increase, moving it into seventh place nationally. Iowa’s average teacher salary in 2023 was $59,581, placing it at No. 28 in the nation.

Grade: C. Reynolds on her website suggested plans to increase the “statutory minimum teacher salary” from $33,500 to $50,000. That does amount to a nearly 50 percent increase. But statutory minimum is different from starting pay.

Claim: “Today, Medicaid only covers postpartum care for two months after birth.”

Analysis: Today in Iowa, Medicaid covers postpartum care for only two months after birth — the federal minimum for those covered by the program for people with limited resources. About four in 10 births in Iowa are covered by Medicaid.

Those who are pregnant have a higher income cap for Medicaid eligibility, but lose coverage 60 days after giving birth — when they are no longer pregnant — if their income does not fit into the typical, lower guidelines.

In 2021, a provision of the American Rescue Plan Act signed by President Joe Biden allowed states, which administer the federal program, to extend postpartum coverage to 12 months after birth. Nearly 40 other states have implemented or initiated implementation of that extension.

While Reynolds proposed extending the benefits, she also proposed tightening the rules for those who qualify for them — meaning that the cost would be neutral.

Grade: A

Claim: “Over 25 percent of adults with serious mental health challenges also suffer from substance use.”

Analysis: Statistics and language on research about the occurrence of substance use disorders among those with serious mental illness varies from organization to organization. However, most statistics show the co-occurrence is somewhat common among those dealing with serious mental health issues.

About one in four individuals with serious mental illness also have a substance use disorder, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse. Serious mental illnesses include major depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and other disorders that cause serious impairment.

The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, cited by Reynolds, says that number is “more than one in four.”

Grade: A

Claim: “Our unemployment rate remains low, we have the sixth highest labor force participation rate in the country, and Iowans are now spending on average less than 10 weeks on unemployment. That’s the lowest rate in 56 years.”

Analysis: Iowa’s unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in November, which means the state tied with six other states for 21st lowest, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Only six states had higher labor force participation rates: Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah, according to November data from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Reynolds in 2022 cut the number of weeks Iowans could collect unemployment benefits from 26 to 16. Iowa Workforce Development reported last year the average amount of time Iowans were spending on unemployment was 10.1 weeks for the year that ended May 31, the Des Moines Register reported. The agency reported that was the lowest rate in 55 years.

Peter Orazem, a labor economist at Iowa State University, told the Register he didn’t think these economic benchmarks were necessarily a positive reflection of government policymaking.

"I do not think changes in unemployment benefits have had much effect on labor supply," said Orazem. "The Iowa unemployment rate was very low before the change in the law and has remained low.“

Grade: A

Claim: “When we started this journey in 2018, our income-tax rate was the sixth highest in the nation at 8.98 percent.”

Analysis: Iowa had more than one income tax rate in 2018. Iowa’s income tax rates in that year ranged from .36 percent for the lowest tax bracket to 8.98 percent for the highest, for individuals who made more than $71,910 that year.

The Governor’s Office cited a 2019 report from the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that advocates for tax reform. The group reported just five other states with higher top marginal tax rates in 2018.

Grade: C. Citing just the tax rate for only the highest tax bracket is misleading. When other organizations have done rankings of income tax rates, they usually use a median, not the rate paid by the highest earners.

Claim: “They’re going to see one the most livable, most affordable states in the country. A state that’s #1 for retirement and #1 for young professional homeownership.”

Analysis: Iowa received the top rank in the country for retirement in a 2023 Bankrate study, which has been cited by several national news outlets. The study gave 60 percent of its weight to both affordability and health care quality and cost in the ratings, favoring Iowa. Following Iowa in the rankings were Delaware, West Virginia, Missouri and Mississippi.

In November, CNBC reported that Iowa had the highest rate of homeownership among millennials, citing a Scholaroo study based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Scholaroo rated Iowa No. 1 for affordability, but No. 10 overall in its “Best and Worst States for Millennials” study.

Grade: B. While millennials are a large portion of young professionals today, that demographic also includes a substantial number of Generation Z workers born after 1996, who were not included in the study.

The Fact Checker was researched and written by Elijah Decious, Erin Jordan and Vanessa Miller. Email the team at factchecker@thegazette.com