The Gazette’s 2023-24 Big Ten women’s basketball projections

The regular-season champion doesn’t get an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, nor does confetti rain upon it.

But it’s the truest, most accurate barometer. The champion will have proven itself throughout a prolonged gauntlet — 18 games, in the world of Big Ten women’s basketball.

For all of Iowa’s accomplishments and big moments of its historical 2022-23 season — Caitlin Clark’s shot against Indiana, a magical run through the Big Ten tournament, another in Seattle, that upset of South Carolina at the Final Four — it was Indiana, not the Hawkeyes, that won the regular-season title.

Iowa has shared two Big Ten regular-season titles during Lisa Bluder’s first 23 years with the Hawkeyes.

* The 2007-08 team went 13-5 in league play and tied with Ohio State.

* In 2021-22, Iowa and Ohio State shared the title at 14-4; Michigan and Maryland were 13-4.

The last time Iowa won an outright title was 1998, under Angie Lee.

A veteran team led by the dynamic Clark, Iowa was the preseason favorite, both by media and coaches, to win the Big Ten this winter.

So get your subscription to Peacock, the TV/streaming service that will telecast eight of Iowa’s Big Ten games, and read on. Here are The Gazette’s midseason predictions as each team prepares for the final 17 games of the league slate (Iowa hosts Minnesota at 1 p.m. Saturday):

14. Rutgers

Current record: 6-8 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: The Scarlet Knights’ last glimmer of Big Ten relevancy came in 2020-21, and have fallen hard since C. Vivian Stringer stepped away for good. This might be their bottom-out season. Among their non-conference conquerors are Fairfield and Boise State. Rutgers re-opens league play Saturday at Northwestern, and that might be a key battle in avoiding the cellar.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 5 (at Piscataway).

Projected record (end of regular season): 8-23 overall, 2-16 Big Ten.

13. Northwestern

Current record: 5-7 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: Four years ago, the Wildcats shared the Big Ten title. Last year, they won two Big Ten games. This will be much more like 2023 than 2020. “Chicago’s Big Ten team” lost to DePaul and Loyola Chicago, and had to go overtime to beat Illinois-Chicago. If the Wildcats are to avoid a second straight last-place campaign, Saturday’s home game with Rutgers might be a must-win.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 31 (at Evanston).

Projected record (end of regular season): 7-22 overall, 2-16 Big Ten.

12. Wisconsin

Current record: 7-4 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: The Badgers have been stuck in the second division for more than a decade. Consider: Last year’s 6-12 Big Ten mark was their best since 2010-11. Wisconsin did compete with Iowa for most of its Big Ten opener in Madison before the Hawkeyes pulled away, 87-65, on Dec. 10. They’ll separate themselves from the bottom two, and they’ll win a game here and there against the middle-of-the-pack teams.

Iowa encounters: Dec. 10 (at Madison), L 87-65; Jan. 16 (at Iowa City)

Projected record (end of regular season): 12-16 overall, 5-13 Big Ten.

11. Purdue

Current record: 7-5 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: For the last eight years or so, the Boilermakers have settled into the middle of the Big Ten pack. Always a danger, particularly at Mackey Arena, but rarely a true contender. That looks to be the case again this season. They lost a toughie at Minnesota, 60-58, in their Big Ten opener, and have a chance to begin the post-holiday slate hot with home games against Wisconsin and Rutgers.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 10 (at West Lafayette).

Projected record (end of regular season): 14-15 overall, 7-11 Big Ten.

10. Illinois

Current record: 6-5 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: What happened? The Illini were one of the league’s major stories last year, climbing from a one-win, last-place outfit to fifth place and an NCAA berth. One media member (me) picked them third this season. Instead, they have lost a series of close games (three by four points or less) and got bombed at home, 84-48, to Michigan on Dec. 10. Three of the next five games are extremely winnable, and Illinois needs all three to regain momentum.

Iowa encounters: Feb. 25 (at Iowa City).

Projected record (end of regular season): 13-15 overall, 7-11 Big Ten.

9. Minnesota

Current record: 11-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: The last time the Golden Gophers started better than this (14-1 in 2014-15), they finished 23-10 and reached the NCAA tournament. Their only loss has been to Connecticut, and they are averaging 80.2 points per game (including 20.3 by Mara Braun) in Dawn Plitzuweit’s first go-around. Question is, is this sustainable? Check back after these five games (at Iowa, home vs. Maryland, at Michigan, home vs. Nebraska, at Indiana).

Iowa encounters: Dec. 30 (at Iowa City), Feb. 28 (at Minneapolis).

Projected record (end of regular season): 17-12 overall, 7-11 Big Ten.

8. Michigan State

Current record: 10-2 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: The Spartans are the model of middle-of-the-pack consistency, winning between seven and nine Big Ten games each of the last seven years. So guess where we have them in 2023-24? Surprisingly, Michigan State sports the league’s third-best NET Ranking (16) as league play resumes, though a home loss to Nebraska was hurtful. If the Spartans can get to 9-9, an NCAA berth is attainable.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 2 (at Iowa City)

Projected record (end of regular season): 18-11 overall, 8-10 Big Ten.

7. Penn State

Current record: 9-3 overall, 0-1 Big Ten.

Comment: It has been a decade since the Lady Lions completed a run of back-to-back-to-back Big Ten regular-season championships. Since then, just one winning season and one year finishing higher than 11th in the league. This might be the year of a climb; all three of PSU’s losses have come against teams currently ranked in the top 25 (USC, West Virginia and at Ohio State in overtime). They restart with home games with Michigan State and Northwestern.

Iowa encounters: Feb. 8 (at Iowa City).

Projected record (end of regular season): 18-11 overall, 9-9 Big Ten.

6. Nebraska

Current record: 9-3 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: The Huskers seem due (maybe overdue) for a breakthrough, and a win at Michigan State in their Big Ten opener was a promising start. Nebraska has an excellent inside-outside duo in Alexis Markowski and Jaz Shelley, and owns home-court advantage in three of the next four games, but those three Pinnacle Bank Arena contests are against Maryland, Indiana and Illinois.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 27 (at Iowa City), Feb. 11 (at Lincoln).

Projected record (end of regular season): 18-11 overall, 10-8 Big Ten.

5. Michigan

Current record: 10-3 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: The Wolverines have become a consistent winner, grabbing at least one victory in each of the last six NCAA tournaments. They get a scheduling break this winter in that they play Iowa, Indiana and Maryland only once apiece. They also have the most impressive Big Ten win to date, an 84-48 rout at Illinois, which came on the heels of a 23-point loss at Toledo.

Iowa encounters: Feb. 15 (at Iowa City).

Projected record (end of regular season): 20-10 overall, 11-7 Big Ten.

4. Maryland

Current record: 9-3 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: This has been the dominant Big Ten program since it came aboard in 2014. Brenda Frese’s teams have fashioned a 137-20 record in their first nine years, with six regular-season titles. This squad started 2-3, with all three losses (to South Carolina, Connecticut and Washington State) by 20 points or more. The Terps have rebounded with seven straight wins, and restart the league slate with pivotal road tests with Nebraska and Minnesota.

Iowa encounters: Feb. 3 (at College Park)

Projected record (end of regular season): 20-9 overall, 12-6 Big Ten.

3. Ohio State

Current record: 10-2 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: Both of the Buckeyes’ losses have come against future Big Ten opponents (USC and UCLA). They avoided a damaging loss in their first league game, rallying to force overtime and beating Penn State at home. Guard Jacy Sheldon has been one of the league’s top players, averaging 19.1 points per game and shooting 56 percent from the field. OSU finishes with a gauntlet — Maryland and Michigan at home, then at Iowa.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 21 (at Columbus); March 3 (at Iowa City)

Projected record (end of regular season): 24-5 overall, 15-3 Big Ten.

2. Indiana

Current record: 10-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: The defending-champion Hoosiers brought back a wealth of experience — Sara Scalia, Chloe Moore-McNeil, Sydney Parrish and All-America post Mackenzie Holmes are seniors now — but an early lopsided loss at Stanford diminished the spotlight somewhat. IU has followed with nine wins in a row, and the next two games are at home (against Illinois and Michigan), so a 3-0 league mark is likely heading into the first big road challenge, at Nebraska.

Iowa encounters: Jan. 13 (at Iowa City); Feb. 22 (at Bloomington)

Projected record (end of regular season): 24-4 overall, 15-3 Big Ten.

1. Iowa

Current record: 12-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten.

Comment: My preseason pick was 25-5 overall, 14-4 Big Ten. But 14-4 probably isn’t going to be enough to win it, and this is a championship-level team. The Hawkeyes have the nation’s best player in Caitlin Clark. Kate Martin has upped her offensive game. Hannah Stuelke continues to grow. And you know, at some point, Gabbie Marshall is going to snap out of her shooting funk; history is on her side. The guess here is that the Hawkeyes sweep their home games and stumble twice on the road (to Indiana, Ohio State, Maryland and/or Nebraska).

Projected record (end of regular season): 27-3 overall, 16-2 Big Ten.

Comments: jeff.linder@thegazette.com