Hoping for a white Christmas in Iowa? Maybe next year.

The picturesque blanket of porcelain snow — dusting lawns and roofs and tree branches — that marks a white Christmas will be absent during this year’s celebrations, weather forecasters say.

Eastern Iowans should expect mild temperatures on Christmas, according to the National Weather Service Quad Cities bureau, with highs hovering between 55 and 60 degrees. Winds up to 25 miles per hour will blow during the holiday. More than an inch of rain may punctuate celebrations.

Precipitation should continue into Tuesday. By then, temperature highs will drop to the mid-40s.

The warmest Cedar Rapids Christmas on record was in 2019, when high temperatures reached 59 degrees. The coldest on record was in 2000, when lows fell to minus 19 degrees. The wettest Christmas on record was in 1895, when 1.13 inches of rain and snow fell, and the snowiest Christmases were in 1996, 1964, 1962 and 1951, when 3 inches fell.

Although there’s still about a week left of this month, it’s on track to be one of the warmest Decembers on record for Iowa.

The warmest December occurred in 2015, when the average temperature was 35.6 degrees. As of Thursday, this December has been 34.2 degrees on average — the third-warmest on record, if it holds.

“Part of the reason why we're seeing this very warm weather is we have a very strong El Niño going on,” said meteorologist Brian Pierce of the NWS Quad Cities bureau

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that arises when weak winds push warmer waters toward the West Coast, which moves the Pacific jet stream south. As a result, the northern U.S. is typically dryer and warmer than usual, and the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast are wetter than usual.

Another strong El Niño took place in the winter of 1982-83. That December ranked the 11th warmest on record for Iowa, Pierce said. The strong El Niño of 1997-98 didn’t place among the warmest Decembers on record.

“Strong El Niño conditions are projected to persist through winter,” said state climatologist Justin Glisan in a statement. “In an El Niño winter, precipitation can be highly variable. Warmer than normal temperatures could result in more rain than snow during the winter months.”

Before the holiday weekend, December precipitation had only reached 60 percent of the historical average of 1.37 inches. The conditions pushed Iowa into its 188th week in a row of abnormally dry and drought conditions — making it the longest drought in Iowa since the 1950s.

This weekend’s rains may push December rainfall totals toward average levels and help stabilize drought conditions ahead of January, which is typically the driest month of the year.

“At this point, any moisture we get in the state will be helpful,” said Tim Hall, the Iowa Department of Natural Resources Hydrology Resources Coordinator, in a statement. “With conditions as dry as they are coming out of 2023, there is a real concern for hydrologic conditions moving into 2024. Low stream flows and dry soil conditions could lead to water supply challenges in the coming year.”

Brittney J. Miller is the Energy & Environment Reporter for The Gazette and a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.

Comments: (319) 398-8370; brittney.miller@thegazette.com