Iowa football’s ‘pretty thin’ margin for error is even thinner against Michigan

IOWA CITY — The objective for Iowa football is obvious this week ahead of Saturday’s Big Ten championship game against Michigan.

“Our goal is to compete and win the football game,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said.

Ferentz also knows the Hawkeyes “are going to have to be at our absolute best to have that chance.”

Michigan is a 23-point favorite, according to many sportsbooks. ESPN Analytics gives the Hawkeyes a mere 7.4 percent chance of winning in Indianapolis.

“Our margin of error is always pretty thin,” Ferentz said. “Given our roster right now — guys that aren’t playing versus who are playing — that margin just keeps narrowing a little bit, so we got to make everything count.”

As Ferentz also pointed out, Iowa’s position as the clear underdog in Saturday’s matchup is not “unfamiliar territory” for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa has been 20-plus-point underdogs three times since 2016, according to data from the sports betting website Covers.com.

When Iowa was a 24-point underdog against Michigan in 2016, the Hawkeyes pulled off a 14-13 upset in part thanks to Keith Duncan’s game-winning 33-yard field goal.

A year later, when Iowa was a 21-point underdog against Ohio State, Kinnick Stadium became “Woodshed, IA 52242” as the Hawkeyes ran away with a 55-24 rout.

“We’ve been here before, and we’ve actually won a couple games like this in the last 25 years,” Ferentz said.

But the most recent time Iowa was a 20-plus-point underdog did not go as well for the Hawkeyes. Ohio State, a 29.5-point favorite last year, blew out the Hawkeyes, 54-10.

Iowa was only a 11.5-point underdog in the 2021 Big Ten championship game against Michigan, but the outcome was similarly ugly. The Wolverines waltzed their way to a 42-3 win and subsequent College Football Playoff berth.

Michigan has been a relatively familiar foe despite playing in the Big Ten’s other division. This will be the third matchup between Iowa and Michigan in the last three seasons. It would have been five games in the last five years, had it not been for a COVID-19 cancellation in 2020.

“I feel like we know them a little bit at least, playing them in the last couple years and seeing them on exchanged film during the course of the year,” Ferentz said.

One source of knowledge Ferentz does not want to tap are the two former Michigan players on Iowa’s roster — quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All Jr., both recovering from season-ending surgeries.

"I don’t even want to know,“ Ferentz said. ”All it does is clutter your mind. I’ve never been one to call other staffs. … I’d rather just look at the film.

“I know they’re an excellent football team. It’s going to be a huge challenge for us, and we got a lot of respect for them.”

Ferentz said Michigan is “very impressive at every position.”

“That’s not a new phenomenon, at least in my 34 years playing against Michigan,” Ferentz said.

Time will tell whether Iowa’s 2016-17 phenomenon of overcoming drastic odds continues this year as well.

“Anything’s possible in sports,” Ferentz said. “I think we’ve all seen that.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com