3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Illinois

IOWA CITY — Bret Bielema surprised some people with his quarterback decision this week.

After John Paddock threw for more than 500 yards in Illinois’ win over Indiana last week and earned Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors, the Illinois head football coach said in a satellite radio interview Wednesday he plans to instead start the now-healthy Luke Altmyer.

Altmyer had been the starting quarterback for Illinois’ first nine games before suffering an injury against Minnesota. He has completed 64.8 percent of his passes while throwing 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Time will tell whether Bielema sticks with that plan. Iowa’s coaching staff seems to be planning for a different outcome.

“I would expect to see both unless Altmyer is the starter and does come out and is just red-hot,” said Jay Niemann, Iowa’s assistant defensive line coach. “Which obviously we hope he’s not.”

Does Iowa’s DeJean-less secondary stop Illinois’ Isaiah Williams?

Saturday will mark Iowa’s first game without star player and midseason All-American Cooper DeJean, who suffered a season-ending lower-leg injury in practice this week.

Losing a player of DeJean’s caliber — he is a finalist for the Nagurski Trophy, which recognizes the top defensive player in college football — would be costly for any team at almost any time.

The timing of DeJean’s injury is especially inconvenient for the Hawkeyes ahead of their game against Illinois.

Illinois wide receiver Isaiah Williams leads the Big Ten with 68 receptions and is second in the conference with 893 receiving yards. When Williams has 120-plus receiving yards, Illinois is 3-0 this season.

Iowa’s offensive line vs. Illinois’ defensive line

Illinois’ defensive front has not experienced the same success as it had last year.

The Illini are tied for last in the Big Ten with 1.8 sacks per game and 10th in the 14-team conference with 4.0 yards allowed per rush. Last year, they were seventh and fourth, respectively, in those categories.

There is not a lack of talent on the defensive line, however.

Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton joined Iowa’s DeJean on the list of five finalists for the Nagurski Trophy. (He is the first finalist for the award from Illinois since 2011.) Like DeJean, NFL draft prognosticators consider Newton to be a likely first-round pick in next year’s draft.

Fellow defensive lineman Keith Randolph Jr. has been an all-Big Ten honoree in the last two seasons — first as an honorable mention in 2021 and then on the third team in 2022.

Newton and Randolph could pose an interesting challenge for Iowa’s offensive line, which has shown recent improvement despite battling injuries.

Does Deacon Hill build on last week’s improvement?

Quarterback Deacon Hill had his best performance of the season last week when he went 20-for-31 with one touchdown and one interception. His passer rating in the game was 129.1 — by far the highest since he assumed QB1 responsibilities.

The improved passing game helped the Hawkeyes in many other facets of their 22-0 win over Rutgers, whether it be keeping the defense more honest against the run or winning the time of possession battle.

If Iowa’s offensive line can continue to give Hill time to throw like it did against Rutgers, that would bode well for Hill’s chances of having another quality performance.

Illinois-Iowa prediction

The lack of DeJean will be a challenge for the Hawkeyes, but not an insurmountable one against an Illinois team that needed overtime to beat conference cellar-dweller Indiana.

Iowa 17, Illinois 13

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com