Iowa Gov. Reynolds endorses DeSantis for president; how much will it matter?

DES MOINES — With Ron DeSantis trying to pull out a strong finish in the Iowa Republican caucuses just about two months away, he scored a rare endorsement Monday from a sitting Iowa governor during a presidential primary.

The question now is whether Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds’ endorsement of the Florida governor will have an impact on the primary in this first-in-the-nation caucus state where, as is also the case nationally, former President Donald Trump has consistently held a commanding lead in polls over DeSantis and the rest of the field.

Reynolds officially endorsed DeSantis during a campaign rally Monday night at an events center in Des Moines.

“To be quite honest, he is one of the most effective leaders I have ever seen,” Reynolds said. “We need someone who will fight for you and win for you, someone who won’t get distracted but will stay disciplined, who puts his country first and not himself. That leader is Ron DeSantis.”

  Buy Photo

Reynolds said she thought “long and hard” about making the decision to endorse DeSantis, and complimented the field of Republican candidates.

“But, as a mom and a grandmother, I could not sit on the sidelines any longer,” she said. “Without a doubt, Ron DeSantis is the person that we need leading this country.”

  Buy Photo

DeSantis, as he does often on the campaign trail, listed the similar legislative and executive actions he has taken in Florida and that Reynolds has taken in Iowa.

“I appreciate Gov. Reynolds getting involved in the process,” DeSantis said of the endorsement. “Now, look, when you do that, some people don't like it and some people say this or that. But I think that she understands what I understand, which is this country has hit the skids. This country is in a period of decline.”

Trump’s lead over the rest of the Republican presidential primary field has been as expansive as it has been consistent. He leads the field by more than 30 points in Real Clear Politics’ rolling average of polling in Iowa, and by 28.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s similar measurement. Those margins have been consistent since August.

As the Jan. 15 Iowa Republican caucuses approach, DeSantis has been focusing his efforts on a strong finish in the state, pledging to visit all 99 counties and increasing his staff and advertising here. But political experts in Iowa are skeptical that Reynolds’ endorsement, despite her popularity among Iowa Republican voters, will move the political needle to any significant extent.

“Gov. Reynolds’ endorsement certainly doesn’t hurt DeSantis, but it probably only marginally helps him in the state at this point in time,” said Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. “The question now is whether Gov. DeSantis can capitalize on the endorsement.”

Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University who wrote a book on the history of the Iowa caucuses, said the gap between DeSantis and Trump is too large to be eliminated by an endorsement. However, like Hoffman, Goldford said the endorsement could be beneficial to DeSantis to a certain degree.

In the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Trump was the first choice of 43 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus participants. DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were the only other candidates in double digits — both at 16 percent.

“First of all, let me note that the political science research has never, to my knowledge, found an instance when an endorsement could overturn a 27-point lead. Endorsements at best can help at the margins, which matters in extremely tight races,” Goldford said.

“That being said, second, I think a Reynolds endorsement might do two things. First, it might help DeSantis gain some daylight between himself and Haley for second place, which is no small thing,” Goldford added. “Second, to the extent that a Reynolds endorsement activates and motivates her own political organization, DeSantis would gain from that organization’s help — if indeed she intends it to do so.”

Even the Iowa Republicans who believe Reynolds is one of the few capable of moving the needle with an endorsement say the impact likely will be minimal.

“I will be so bold to tell you that I think the only person in Iowa, the only person that possibly could move the needle — and it wouldn’t be probably to a big degree, maybe 1 point, maybe 2 points, maybe 3 points — would be our Gov. Kim Reynolds,” Steve Scheffler, president and chief executive officer of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, said recently.

Reynolds initially said she would remain neutral in the run-up to the caucuses. But this summer, she began to suggest she may endorse a candidate after all.

Most political observers believed that if Reynolds were to endorse anyone, it would be DeSantis. While she has spent time with most of the Republican candidates, Reynolds has appeared at multiple DeSantis events, including one with his wife, Casey.

Typically, sitting Iowa governors have avoided endorsing presidential candidates as they play host as the first state to cast their preference in presidential primary campaigns. However, Reynolds’ endorsement is not without precedent.

The most recent presidential endorsement from a sitting Iowa governor came nearly 30 years ago, when former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad endorsed then-Kansas U.S. Sen. Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. So did longtime Iowa Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley.

And while Branstad did not endorse a candidate in the 2016 presidential primary, he encouraged Iowans to not support Ted Cruz in the caucuses because of the U.S. senator from Texas’ position on ethanol policy.

Dole narrowly won the 1996 Republican Iowa caucuses and went on to become the party’s nominee for president. Cruz won the 2016 caucuses despite Branstad’s protest, but Trump eventually earned the party’s nomination.

What other candidates and parties say

Trump’s campaign issued a statement Sunday after news leaked of Reynolds’ pending endorsement. Reynolds fell out of favor with Trump this year when she declined to endorse him, originally saying she planned to remain neutral in the caucuses. Trump said he felt Reynolds should have endorsed him after he said he helped her win election in 2018 and 2022.

“Kim Reynolds apparently has begun her retirement tour early as she clearly does not have any ambition for higher office,” the Trump campaign statement read. “Earlier this year, she promised her constituents that she would remain neutral in the race, yet she has completely gone back on that promise. Regardless, her endorsement will not make any difference in this race.”

Haley’s team has been highlighting polls that show her leading Democratic President Joe Biden in prospective head-to-head matchups in general election swing states. In a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll, Haley was picked over Biden by 14 points in Wisconsin, 10 points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, 9 points in Arizona and Nevada and 5 points in Georgia.

A statement from Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman Rita Hart decried the “MAGA agenda” of the two governors — referring to the Trump campaign’s “make America great again” slogan.

“The worst-kept secret in Iowa politics is now public — Gov. Reynolds is fully behind Ron DeSantis’ flailing campaign,” Hart said. “Reynolds and DeSantis have run the same playbook pushing the deeply unpopular MAGA agenda like near-total abortion bans and waging wars on public education. Hopefully, Iowans won’t let DeSantis or Reynolds get anywhere close to taking that MAGA agenda nationwide.”

Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com