Voters’ angst prevails over 2024 landscape

Here we are — one year before the Nov. 5, 2024 election — and a recent Pew Research Center poll reveals 65% of Americans say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. Fifty-five percent feel angry, let alone disgusted.

Furthermore, 63% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the candidates who have emerged so far. Most Americans are critical of the role of money in politics and the inter- and intraparty campaign fighting starts way too early in the election cycle.

Pundits are already making predictions. Let’s preview their preelection analysis.

Presidential Election

The non-partisan and independent `Road to 270’ 2024 presidential election map claims the Democratic Party has already sewed up 241 Electoral College votes, needing only 29 more to reach the 270 magical number. GOP is touted to have 235 votes in their pocket, 35 electoral votes short of winning the presidency.

The Dem’s can remain in the White House if states in just one of these six scenarios `vote blue’: 1. Pennsylvania and Georgia, 2. Pennsylvania and Arizona, 3. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 4. Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, 5. Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and 6. Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada.

For the Republican Party, they only have five `vote red’ winning combinations to flip the presidency back to GOP-controlled: 1. Pennsylvania and Georgia, 2. Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin, 3. Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, 4. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada and 5. Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Senate

Currently the Democrats’ Senate caucus is composed of 51 members (48 Democrats and three independents). Forty-nine members make up the GOP’s side. Of the 33 Senate races in 2024, 20 Democrats, 10 Republicans and three independents are seeking re-election.

The independent and non-partisan Cook Political Report (CPR) feels there are three major “tossup” elections: 1. Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema (independent), 2. Ohio’s Sherrod Brown (D) and 3. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D).

Don’t be surprised if Democrats lose control of the Senate.

U.S. House

Of the 435 House elections in 2024, CPR thinks the Democrats and Republicans will each win over 200 seats, but there are 24 races classified as deadlocked.

Ten currently-controlled Democrat seats in the nail-biter category include: Colorado’s Yadira Caraveo; Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin; North Carolina’s Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson; New Mexico’s Gabe Vasquez; Ohio’s Emilia Sykes; Pennsylvania’s Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright; and Washington’s Marie Perez.

Fourteen Republicans are in cliffhanger races: Arizona’s David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani; California’s John Duarte, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert; Colorado’s Lauren Boebert; Florida’s John Rutherford; Louisiana’s Julia Letlow; New Jersey’s Thomas Kean; New York’s Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marcus Molinaro and Brandon Williams; and Oregon’s Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

Don’t be shocked if the Republicans lose control of the House.

If we’re already exhausted, disgusted, angry and dissatisfied, imagine how we’ll feel come Nov. 5, 2024.

Steve Corbin is professor emeritus of marketing at the University of Northern Iowa.