State Senate Shocker - Update II

Are Democrats suddenly in danger of losing control of the Iowa Senate?

Hard evidence is so far scarce, but The Iowa Democratic Party has launched a website, keepthemajority.com:

Keep the Majority

We have an extremely urgent need for your help. Due to an early retirement by an Iowa Democratic Senator, there will be a special election in Linn County this fall which will decide whether the Iowa State Senate stays in Democratic control, or becomes the latest, and last casualty of the Tea Party Republicans in Iowa. Please contribute and volunteer today!

Please check this website often for updates about this critical race.

From what I'm hearing, the lawmaker is my very own state senator, Swati Dandekar, D-Marion.

 I received a call from a trusted source earlier today who told me that Dandekar will be appointed to a full-time seat on the Iowa Utilities Board by Gov. Terry Branstad. That would mean leaving her Senate seat. And with the Senate currently narrowly controlled 26-24 by Democrats, that would set up a huge special election battle with the balance of power at stake.

 I spoke very briefly with Dandekar, but she would say only "I cannot comment." Senate Democrats are mum and I have not heard back from Branstad's office. Two blogs have posted on the speculation here and here.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE -- Branstad's camp also remains silent. "We will not be commenting on any rumors regarding the Iowa Utilities Board," said Branstad spokesman Jimmy Centers in an email.

The Des Moines Register has a story based on "multiple sources."

In the story, University of Iowa poli sci Prof. Tim Hagle speculates that a GOP pickup might "break the logjam" on stalled GOP priorities in the Senate, such as a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. But having covered the 2005-06 25-25 Senate, I'm skeptical there will be much logjam-breaking. In split control, noting much moves without the consent of both party leaders, making debate on anything contentious actually less likely.

UPDATE II -- Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky has issued a statement that confirms Dandekar's departure:

“Maintaining our Democratic majority in the Iowa Senate is essential to protecting middle class Iowans and keeping our state moving forward. This election will be a clear choice between what voters in the district want: someone who will stand up and support them in the Iowa Senate, or someone who will pursue a divisive agenda like Iowa Republicans chose during the last session. We're confident that Iowans will vote for real leadership and choose to maintain Democratic control of this seat.”

Craig Robinson at the Iowa Republican sets the stage:

 Democrats currently hold 26 of the 50 Senate seats. While the Democrats' two-seat advantage is a far cry far cry from the 32 seats they held before the 2010 election, Mike Gronstal runs the chamber with an iron fist. With Republicans now able to capture partial control of the Senate before the next legislative session, Iowa Republicans are bound to do what it takes to win the seat, while Democrats will stop at nothing to maintain control of Dandekar's district.

 The upcoming special election will dominate the political landscape in Iowa. It's hard to believe that a State Senate race could over shadow the Republican caucus campaigns, but that's what is going to happen since Iowa Republicans can wrestle control away from Mike Gronstal and Senate Democrats if they win.

Branstad has 5 days to call a special election once Dandekar's resignation is final. The election can be held no sooner than 40 days after the governor's call.

Fellow Marionites, prepare to be invaded.