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Keeping the faith: Iowa’s evangelical voters crucial to presidential candidates
A ‘deep conviction’ drives evangelicals to participate in caucuses
Oct. 22, 2023 5:00 am
DES MOINES — Deb Fullan made the two-hour drive this July from her home in Eastern Iowa’s Washington to Des Moines to witness a restriction on abortions being signed into state law and to hear from six Republican candidates for president.
The event, which drew roughly 2,000 people to a ballroom in downtown Des Moines, was hosted by The Family Leader, an Iowa-based Christian conservative organization that has become an influential force in politics.
Fullan was asked about the choice that she — and thousands of Iowa Republicans — will make in January at the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, and the role her faith will play in that decision.
“Your relationship with Jesus Christ is your basis of all decisions that you make,” she said. “Because this is not our home. We’re just on a journey and home is heaven. And the only assurance of heaven is through Jesus Christ. …
“So that is the basis of faith, and all things come through that door. Truth comes through that door.”
In the expansive field of Republican presidential candidates, Fullan said she liked Tim Scott, the U.S. senator from South Carolina who in campaign stops often stresses his faith, quotes the Bible and speaks in a style reminiscent of a Sunday sermon.
Fullan also said she still admires former Vice President Mike Pence, another candidate who regularly talks about his faith. However, Fullan said she was disappointed when Pence did not stop the Senate’s certification of the 2020 presidential election results, in which he and former President Donald Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
Fullan is a member of a crucial segment of the Iowa Republican electorate: evangelicals, who comprise more than a third — 37 percent — of Iowa Republicans, according to Pew Research Center data.
And ever since Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Republican caucuses in 2008 on the strength of the evangelical vote — the eventual Republican nominee, John McCain, finished fourth that year — support from Christian conservatives has been a hot commodity in the quadrennial caucuses.
Bob Vander Plaats, president and chief executive officer of The Family Leader, said Christian conservatives reliably turn out for caucuses because of their “deep conviction.”
In 2016, the last time Iowa Republicans had a competitive caucus, Vander Plaats endorsed Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. That year, Cruz finished first in the caucuses, just ahead of Trump, who went on to secure the party’s nomination and become president.
In a caucus, “you really have to believe you need to be there because you’re to spend a couple of hours there,” Vander Plaats said. “You’re going to hear neighbors probably saying some things you disagree with and supporting candidates, but you’re going to want to be in that argument or that debate.
“I think that comes from a deep conviction of Christians. That while they don’t put hope into politics, they do believe they should be part of the timeless, prophetic voice to a culture. … And out of that conviction they are willing to spend a couple of hours on a Monday night on Jan. 15, where it might be 40-below zero and snow above your roof. They’re going to still go there. And I think in large part that’s why they have made up a large voting bloc.”
About this story
This article was produced by Gazette reporters conducting more than a dozen interviews over the past three months with Iowa evangelical voters and faith leaders, and Gazette photographers capturing images at caucus campaign events.
Evangelical voters and the candidates
Jennifer Stark, 50, of Ankeny, attended The Family Leader Summit held in June. She said she voted for Trump twice and is likely to participate in the 2024 caucuses. Though she was undecided on who she will support, she was “heavily leaning” toward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“I’ve seen what he’s done over the last couple of years and he’s stood up to the establishment. He’s fought for family. He’s fought for life. He’s fought against” COVID-19 restrictions, Stark said.
“He’s fought to keep our liberty in play. And I like that he’s a stronger, moral guy to follow than Trump,” she said. “I love what Trump did while he was in office,” Stark said, but she has grown weary of his mounting legal troubles.
“They’re never going to stop trying to arrest him, trying to impeach him. I’ve just grown weary of just the ego. Is he really for the people?” Stark said. “I mean, for the longest time it was ‘Make America Great,’ and I believe that. But, now, it’s almost like he’s got a score to settle.”
She said restricting abortion is “very important” to her and her family.
“I want to hear that all of our candidates, even our governor, that say abortion is never, never OK,” Stark said. “To me, life is life from the moment of conception. I don’t want to see any compromise.”
Stark said she supports a nationwide abortion ban and the Iowa law signed by Gov. Kim Reynolds that prohibits nearly all abortions after doctors detect cardiac activity in the embryo. The law is temporarily on hold while a legal challenge plays out in court.
For other evangelical voters, the crucial decision of who to support for president still is up in the air.
“Prayer is absolutely No. 1, and asking for God’s guidance. And this time we’re up in the air,” said Darlene Carr, of Washington, Iowa. “It’s been a long time since we’ve been up in the air. And so it's all the more important to just tune in and listen to where God’s leading you.”
Vander Plaats said evangelical voters believe a candidate’s faith shapes his or her leadership and policy views. “If it doesn’t, then we would question the sincerity of their faith,” he said.
He said while DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and other candidates don’t “wear (their faith) as much on their sleeve,” their policies and leadership show “their faith is definitely a foundational point.”
And while Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a Hindu, “doesn’t share the Christian faith,” Vander Plaats said, he said he believes there is one god and that the United States is a Judeo-Christian nation. Among the 10 truths that guide Ramaswamy’s 2024 presidential campaign are his declarations that: God is real, there are two genders, parents determine the education of their children, and the nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to mankind.
As for Trump, Vander Plaats said Iowa evangelicals coalesced around him after he secured the GOP nomination in 2016 “because they thought they needed something different than politics as usual,” and someone who would appoint conservative Supreme Court justices.
“So I think having somebody of a strong faith is very important to people in the evangelical community, but it’s not the end-all,” Vander Plaats said. “They also want to know the capacity to be president and the timing — is America ready to embrace you at this point?”
A shift in voters’ priorities
Kedron Bardwell, the political science department chair at Simpson College in Indianola whose expertise is in religion and politics, said there has been a shift in the way Iowa evangelical voters approach selecting a candidate.
And that change was sparked by Trump, Bardwell said.
“If you look at some of the data in Iowa from 2016, (evangelical voters) were some of the more reluctant to jump on the Trump bandwagon. That changed pretty quickly once it became obvious that he was either in the lead or just outright going to win the nomination,” Bardwell said. “But they certainly, initially, had moral qualms with this idea of voting for someone like Trump given all of his baggage. And that baggage has only been added to during his presidency.”
Trump has been accused of sexual assault by more than two dozen women. Trump has denied the allegations, although earlier this year in a civil suit a jury found Trump liable for sexually abusing one of those women.
Trump also faces 34 felony charges in a scheme to suppress allegations of an extramarital affair with a former porn actress. Trump is accused of falsifying his business records while trying to cover up his attempt to arrange payments to silence the woman, who has described the affair publicly.
Those legal issues were widely known during Trump’s first campaign in 2015 and 2016. Since becoming president, his legal woes have continued to climb: He has been indicted on a charge of attempting to coerce elections officials to overturn the 2020 presidential election results; for improper handling of classified documents after he left office; and for deceiving banks for his financial benefit by overvaluing some of his real estate properties.
Trump finished second in the 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses and won the state in the 2016 and 2020 general elections. This year, he remains the dominant leader in polling on the 2024 Republican presidential primary, both nationally and in Iowa. He is 46 percentage points clear of the rest of the field nationally and 33 points clear of the field in Iowa, according to Real Clear Politics’ rolling average of presidential primary polls. The political data journalism site fivethirtyeight.com finds a similar Trump advantage, showing him with a 44-point lead over the field nationally and a 30-point lead in Iowa.
Bardwell said evangelical voters in the past would have disavowed candidates whose public image did not match their values. He pointed to their rebuke of former Democratic President Bill Clinton, who admitted to having a sexual relationship with a White House intern.
Bardwell said that, having grown up in the evangelical movement, that voter behavior has represented “a real shift.”
“I think that focus has been supplanted or replaced in the evangelical movement with the idea that we should support anyone who does what we think is best, ‘someone who shares our policies but not necessarily our personal values or character,’ in their mind,” Bardwell said. “So I think it’s become less of a relationship defined by character and leadership, and more of a transactional relationship between white evangelicals and Trump or Trumpism: ‘If we can get what we want, maybe it doesn’t matter that much how we get it, and which candidate does it for us.’”
Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, said many evangelical voters focus on the conservative fruits of Trump’s presidency. At the top of that list is Trump’s appointment of three conservative Supreme Court justices, which led directly to the overturning of what for five decades had been a legally protected right to an abortion.
Scheffler worked on the 1987 Republican presidential campaign of preacher Pat Robertson.
“I think a lot of evangelicals supporting Trump are inclined to understand they’re not electing a pastor or priest or a rabbi. They understand that there’ll be two choices between a failed administration of Biden or the alternative being Trump. And so they’re concerned about the future of the country,” Scheffler said. “So in spite of, maybe they don’t always care for (Trump’s) rhetoric or the way he delivers it (but) you don’t want to see the country go down the toilet, either. And of course, they know what he did, that he delivered on most of the promises that he made.”
Evangelical voters and the issues
For Iowa evangelical voters, restricting access to abortion is a cornerstone issue in deciding who to back in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. But it’s not the only issue on their minds.
And Trump is testing the resilience of his support among the key conservative voting bloc that could solidify — or slow — his march to the GOP nomination.
While polls, both nationally and Iowa, show Trump with a large and commanding lead among Republican voters and likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, many evangelicals in the state — including those who previously supported and voted for the former president — say they’re still weighing their options.
Micah Stickley, 26, of Marion, and his wife, Lauren, 25, voted for Trump in the past and were leaning toward supporting the former president again. However, they were keeping an open mind as they waited in line earlier this month outside Refuge City Church in Cedar Rapids to hear DeSantis, Trump’s closest rival, at a town hall sponsored by super PAC backing his campaign.
The pair said they were eager to learn more about DeSantis.
Micah said the couple felt “let down” by Trump’s comments on abortion during a September interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” The former president suggested state law banning abortion after six weeks — like the one DeSantis signed into law in April and like the one Reynolds signed in July — are “a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.”
Trump did not say whether he would support a national abortion ban. He said he would bring together Republicans and Democrats to find a “number of weeks or months” as a cut off point that’s going to “make people happy.”
“A big thing for us is to vote our faith,” Micah said. “And for a candidate, what we’re looking into is just seeing if they’re pro-life. That’s a huge one for us. The more we can see in a candidate that they’re reflecting our beliefs … that’s a big (selling point).”
The pair said they applaud DeSantis signing into law Florida legislation to ban abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.
“I think that’s probably one of the top issues,” Micah said. “Yeah, I mean, we believe that life begins at the moment of conception.”
The Marion couple also cited protecting religious freedom and legislation prohibiting classroom instruction and discussion about sexual orientation and gender identity in certain elementary school grades, feeling such subjects are inappropriate for the classroom.
“I mean, for us, (it’s about) to be able to protect the child’s innocence,” Micah said. “A lot of the stuff going into the education system is just things that children shouldn’t be exposed to at early ages and shouldn’t be talked to or taught until a much later age.”
Vander Plaats said evangelical voters “aren’t interested in nuance” when it comes to the issue of abortion, and said Trump “is missing the mark” with his recent comments on the subject.
He said DeSantis, Pence and Scott get high marks from Iowa evangelical voters for supporting a 15-week federal abortion ban. Such a ban is based on the premise that fetuses can feel pain at 15 weeks gestation. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says “the science conclusively establishes that a human fetus does not have the capacity to experience pain until after at least 24 to 25 weeks.”
Haley has said she would sign into law a federal abortion ban, but notes that any legislation faces steep odds to pass Congress, were 60 votes are needed for bills to advance in the Senate. As governor of South Carolina, Haley signed a 20-week abortion ban into law.
Ramaswamy, the youngest among the Republicans vying for the White House, has said “unborn life is life” and describes himself as “unapologetically pro-life.” He has said he does not believe a federal abortion ban “makes any sense,” but does support a six-week abortion ban at the state level.
Evangelicals not a monolith
While issues like abortion policy may be more important to evangelical voters, both Scheffler and Vander Plaats warned against viewing those voters as monolithic.
“When they come to the caucuses in this constituency, they are going to probably use different measuring sticks or metrics by which to make a final decision of who they're going to support. It could be electability. It could be who they agree with on the major issues,” Scheffler said. “Even though they may agree on 90 to 95 percent of the issues generally across the board, there’s going to be differences by which they’re going to figure out, ‘Who am I going to cast my ballot for on caucus night?’”
Vander Plaats said while abortion is a “cornerstone issue” for Iowa evangelical voters, it’s not the only issue on their minds. He said he believes just as important to them is who will have the best shot at winning the 2024 general election, presumably against Biden.
“I think it’s probably exaggerated that the evangelical community is just this narrow-mindseted voter,” Vander Plaats said. “They want a vibrant economy. They want lower taxes and lower gas prices. They want families to thrive. They want mom’s and dad’s parental rights to lead in their children’s education and to actually raise and nurture their children, not the government. … They’re interested in border security and immigration reform.
“But it all comes down to leadership. And if they can trust you on the sanctity of human life and on basic things, they’ll now be able to trust you on a broader basis.”
Stark, the self-employed interior painter from Ankeny, also cited immigration and protecting religious freedom as top issues in the presidential race. She said she supports creating an earned pathway to citizenship for America's undocumented immigrants, and simplifying and modernizing the U.S. immigration system.
Stark also said she’s worried about federal policies meant to guard against discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation “that’s making me conform to that.” She cited a Supreme Court ruling that determined a evangelical web designer could not be required to provide services for a same-sex couple.
“My faith is the most important thing to me — making sure that I have religious freedom,” Stark said. “That’s not being threatened right now, but that would be something I would like to see continue.”
Comments: (515) 355-1300, erin.murphy@thegazette.com
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