3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Minnesota in 2023

IOWA CITY — A rivalry series in which Iowa has won the last eight games might not seem like much of a rivalry at first glance.

But the Iowa-Minnesota series has had plenty of competitive games in recent years. Six of the eight Iowa wins during the current streak were decided by one possession.

This year could be a continuation of that trend, as the 6-1 Hawkeyes are 3.5-point favorites despite playing at home.

Here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to extend their winning streak against their Big Ten rival to the north:

Can Iowa stop (or at least slow down) Minnesota in the rushing game?

Minnesota’s running backs have fared well against the Hawkeyes in the last few matchups.

Mo Ibrahim had 263 yards against Iowa last year while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

The year before, Ky Thomas had 126 yards against the Hawkeyes and averaged 4.3 yards per carry. In 2020, Ibrahim had 144 yards and averaged 4.4 yards per carry.

“The last three times we played these guys, I think they won the line of scrimmage,” Iowa defensive line coach Kelvin Bell said. “Make no bones about that. The challenge for us is trying to get that back. I think if we can do that, then we’ll have success.”

Bell referenced a Bruce Lee quote — “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times” — when describing Minnesota’s run game.

“They’ve got one kick, and they practice the hell out of it,” Bell said. “They do a really good job at it."

There is some uncertainty from outside Minnesota about who will be leading the Gophers’ ground attack. True freshman Darius Taylor has averaged 6.1 yards per carry, but has not played since Sept. 23 due to an injury.

If Taylor is unable to go, Zach Evans would be a name to watch at running back. The redshirt freshman has averaged 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Iowa’s rushing attack vs. Minnesota’s defensive front

Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill said this week he believes the passing game is “close” to finally clicking.

“At some point, it's going to click,” Hill said. “It's just a matter of when it's going to click. But yeah, I have a feeling it's close. We're right there.”

But with Hill going 27-of-70 — a statistic Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said he was “not even aware of” until Tuesday’s news conference — it is hard to count on production from the passing game.

An effective rushing attack was crucial last week against Wisconsin — the Hawkeyes’ only touchdown was on an 82-yard Leshon Williams carry — and will likely be crucial again this week against Minnesota.

“We'll be a better football team if we can run the ball successfully,” Ferentz said. “It's never easy, but it certainly helps you.”

When Iowa rushes for at least 150 yards, it has outscored opponents this season, 76-30. When the Hawkeyes fall short of 150 yards, opponents have outscored them, 74-70.

Minnesota’s defensive front could present another test for an offensive line that Ferentz has noticed “getting a little bit more mature.”

Does Iowa’s offense play mistake-free football?

Iowa has overcome having statistically one of the worst offenses in the country partly because of its ability to hold onto the ball.

The Hawkeyes have given up only one turnover in the last two weeks. It is a significant contrast from the four turnovers given up in their lone loss of the season against then-No. 7 Penn State.

Iowa went the entire second and third quarters last week without any plays starting in Wisconsin territory, so any turnover would have set up the Badgers in excellent field position in what was a one-possession game for most of the afternoon.

With Saturday’s fight for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy expected to be another close game, the Hawkeyes can ill-afford an untimely turnover.

Prediction

Points could be a premium again this week in the battle for the pig.

Iowa 13, Minnesota 10

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com