Data analysis: Quantifying Tory Taylor's ‘huge’ impact in Iowa’s field position game

IOWA CITY — Iowa football has embraced its unique ways of winning.

“We just play it to the end,” safety Sebastian Castro said. “We keep on going, and we keep on finding every little way to win. ... We love it. We couldn’t ask for any other way.”

A byproduct of winning via “playing the hardest and for the longest” are some unconventional statistics through seven games.

Iowa’s defense has given up 2,279 total yards through seven games while the offense has only picked up 1,732 yards. Yet the Hawkeyes are 6-1 overall, 3-1 in Big Ten play and control their own destiny for a division title.

There is no singular root cause for how Iowa has a near-perfect record despite the aforementioned far-from-perfect statistics.

Iowa, led by the most-tenured head coach in the Big Ten, has historically fared well in close games with a 14-4 record in games decided by 10 or fewer points since 2021.

Iowa’s unusually weak schedule undoubtedly plays a part as well. The Hawkeyes’ six wins have come against teams that are a combined 17-23 this season. CBS Sports projects only one of the six teams to go to a bowl game.

Another reason is Iowa’s knack for flipping field position with its elite punt return and punt coverage units.

“Tory’s tremendous,” defensive end Joe Evans said. “Him being able to flip the field position is just huge for our defense.”

Iowa is averaging 45.24 net yards per punt, which ranks second nationally behind Vanderbilt’s 45.97. Preseason All-America punter Tory Taylor’s average increases to 45.7 net yards per punt when excluding the punt tipped by Utah State in Week 1.

Iowa’s opponents, on the other hand, have averaged 36.6 net yards per punt — a number significantly dampened by Cooper DeJean’s highlight-making punt returns.

The 9.1-yard advantage Iowa has in the punt return/coverage phases of the game more than makes up for what Iowa does (or more like does not do) on the drives preceding the punts. Iowa’s defense has allowed 23.9 yards per drive while Iowa’s offense has gained 18.8 yards per drive — a 5.1-yard difference.

Iowa’s field-position-flipping ability was under the spotlight in the Hawkeyes’ 15-6 win over Wisconsin.

Taylor averaged 47.9 net yards per punt. His counterpart at Wisconsin, Atticus Bertrams, averaged 42.1 net yards per punt. That 5.8-yard difference in net punts almost entirely negated Wisconsin’s extra 6.3 yards per drive in Saturday’s Heartland Trophy game.

The sustainability of Iowa’s field-flipping wins remains to be seen.

The margin for error has been slim in Iowa’s three Big Ten victories.

Iowa trailed in the second half of the Michigan State game. Meanwhile, Purdue and Wisconsin had opportunities to take the lead in the fourth quarter of their respective games. Those wins were with a combined 8-3 advantage in the turnover margin, too.

If any issues emerge with holding onto the ball on first, second or third down, what Taylor and the punt unit can accomplish on fourth down would become a moot point.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com