3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Wisconsin in 2023

IOWA CITY — Iowa football players, as Jay Higgins sees it, have a “by-any-means-possible mentality.”

“It doesn’t matter what it looks like,” the Iowa linebacker said. “It doesn't matter how we get there as long as we get to the win. That’s what’s most important.”

Iowa, despite some unaesthetic ways of doing it, has fared well in the most important metric.

At 5-1 (with the only loss coming on the road to then-No. 7 Penn State), the Hawkeyes are off to their best start since 2021. They are one of 29 Power Five teams with no more than one loss through the first six weeks of the season.

Iowa has a challenge looming in Madison, Wis., though, as the Hawkeyes are a 10-point underdog against Big Ten West rival Wisconsin — another team with only one loss so far.

Here are three keys and a score prediction for Iowa football as it chases a third straight win — unaesthetic or otherwise:

Braelon Allen vs. Iowa’s defense

Ironically for a team with an “Air Raid” offensive scheme, much of the Badgers’ offensive success is dependent on their top running back.

Since the start of the 2021 season, Wisconsin is 18-3 when Braelon Allen rushes for at least 90 yards. (One of the losses was in a triple-overtime game at Michigan State, and the other was against then-No. 3 Ohio State.)

When Iowa won against Wisconsin last year, it held Allen to a mere 45 rushing yards on 19 carries. When Wisconsin pulled off a 20-point upset in 2021, Allen racked up 104 yards on 20 carries.

“They changed the offense, but they’re smart enough to know to get him the ball frequently, and he does a good job with it,” Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said on his weekly radio show.

Can the Hawkeyes build an early lead?

The importance of having an early lead is not exclusive to playing against Wisconsin. When leading at halftime, Iowa is 154-29 during the Ferentz era versus 28-83 when trailing.

The Hawkeyes’ last time coming back from a double-digit deficit to win was when they climbed out of a 21-6 hole at Nebraska in 2021. Since then, they have lost six straight when trailing by double-digits.

Some factors in this year’s Heartland Trophy game could make a late comeback especially difficult for the Hawkeyes.

Quarterback Deacon Hill is slated to make his first road start after going 6-of-21 against a Purdue team that ranks 10th in the Big Ten with 7.01 yards allowed per passing attempt. Meanwhile, the Allen-led Wisconsin rushing attack is well-equipped to help the Badgers maintain possession late in games.

Can Iowa’s wide receivers be an outside threat?

The Hawkeyes exited Kinnick Stadium with a 20-14 win last weekend despite not completing any passes to wide receivers. A week before, Iowa’s wide receivers combined to grab six receptions in the win against Michigan State.

But what Iowa got away with offensively against Purdue and Michigan State might not fly against the Badgers’ respectable defense. Wisconsin’s defense ranks 20th nationally in passing yards allowed per attempt. Purdue ranks 55th, and Michigan State ranks 66th.

If the Badgers do not have to worry about Iowa’s wide receivers as legitimate threats in the passing game, they could devote more resources to stopping tight end Erick All and running back Kaleb Johnson.

Prediction

Saturday’s Heartland Trophy game could end up closer than the 10-point spread might suggest. An Iowa upset is not impossible, but would likely require significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball.

Wisconsin 16, Iowa 13

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com