Data analysis: Is Iowa football’s 2023 passing futility sustainable?

IOWA CITY — Deacon Hill is unsurprisingly not satisfied with his 6-for-21 performance against Purdue.

“Anybody would have been frustrated with that performance,” the Iowa starting quarterback said Tuesday. “But the biggest thing for me was just learning from it and trying to grow for this week.”

As Hill works on “giving our receivers and tight ends a chance to make a play” more often, Iowa’s passing numbers are historically low.

Iowa’s 45.9 percent completion rate, along with being the worst in the country this season, is second-worst among Power Five teams since 2018.

Iowa’s 5.34 passing yards per attempt is the worst among Power Five teams this season and the fourth-worst among Power Five teams since 2018.

It is not a Hill-specific problem.

Before his season-ending injury, Cade McNamara put up numbers unbecoming of a former third-team all-Big Ten quarterback. He completed a career-low 51.1 percent of his passes, and his 106.2 passer rating ranks 111th out of 115 qualifying FBS quarterbacks.

His two-week absence from fall camp because of a quad injury likely did not help matters. CBS Sports lead college football game analyst Gary Danielson said last month he saw McNamara still “getting comfortable” in Iowa’s offense.

Regardless of whether it’s Hill or McNamara under center, Iowa’s level of passing futility rarely coincides with the level of success many Hawkeye fans crave.

No Power Five team that completed 54 percent or fewer of its passes went on to win more than eight games since 2018. Only five of the 26 teams in that group had winning records.

Similarly, no Power Five team that averaged fewer than 6 passing yards per attempt went on to win more than eight games since 2018. Four of the 30 teams below that mark had winning records.

The 26 teams at or below a 54 percent completion rate had a combined 105-206 record, and the 30 teams below 6 passing yards per attempt had a combined 104-234 record.

The Hawkeyes have other factors favoring them, though, as they face historically challenging headwinds in the passing game.

As evident in the last two not-always-glamorous wins, Iowa’s success on defense and special teams has negated some of the offensive ineffectiveness.

The defense, while not at as elite a level as last year, ranks seventh in the country with 4.29 yards allowed per play. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten, meanwhile, in yards per punt return and net yards per punt.

Iowa’s strength of its remaining schedule is unusually weak. The six remaining opponents have gone 0-8 against ranked teams this year and 7-16 against Power Five teams.

Iowa’s future opponents are 2-11 against Power Five foes outside of the Big Ten West.

“Iowa has Purdue’s (2022) schedule this year,” CBS Sports’ Danielson told The Gazette last month.

Purdue won the Big Ten West with its favorable schedule last year. The next seven weeks will reveal whether Iowa can achieve those results, too, with a similarly favorable schedule.

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com