3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against TCU

Saturday night’s Big 12 football game at Jack Trice Stadium is pivotal to both teams’ success moving forward.

TCU will be hungry to prove its three-point losses this season are flukes, and Iowa State needs a win in order to keep nurturing realistic hopes they can eventually achieve bowl eligibility for the sixth time in the past seven seasons.

ISU head coach Matt Campbell has praised his young team’s growth as it nears the midway point of the season, but progress needs to translate to better results quickly — especially coming off a 30-point loss to Oklahoma.

The Cyclones are unlikely to run into an offense as potent as Oklahoma’s until at least the Texas game, but TCU’s capable of striking in similar ways. Keeping that offense under control will go a long way toward proving ISU can find enough wins on the remaining schedule to finish in the top half of the new-look Big 12.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Iowa State’s defense needs to produce pressure

The Cyclones sacked Northern Iowa quarterback Theo Day five times in their 30-9 season-opening win, but have managed to take down a quarterback just three times in the ensuing four games.

So it’s clear ISU’s three-man front — which features three new starters — isn’t cutting it. The Cyclones often bring a linebacker or safety on their pass rushes, too, but even those efforts have been largely thwarted by FBS offensive lines.

How to improve that situation? Obviously, more creative and/or risky blitz packages could be deployed, but that’s a dicey proposition when your defense is predicated on goading opposing quarterbacks into making mistakes that doom drives before they can produce points.

TCU quarterback Chandler Morris further complicates any possible plan to take more chances with the pass rush because of his ability to run — whether designed or improvised. It’s a thorny issue for ISU’s defense, but coordinator Jon Heacock’s provided ample proof in the past that he can make adjustments that beget massive improvements. So we’ll see what he dials up this week against the Horned Frogs.

2. Iowa State’s offense needs to spread the field

ISU finally established a strong running game in the first half in the 50-20 loss at Oklahoma and that’s largely because the offense used every inch of the field to attack Oklahoma State in a 34-27 win the previous week.

The Sooners’ defense was the first the Cyclones have faced this season that chose not to stack the box, and ISU racked up 121 rushing yards before halftime as Abu Sama and others came alive behind a reinvigorated offensive line.

That production in the run game withered in the second half, obviously, because the Cyclones had fallen behind by more than two scores. But it could ratchet up again this week if quarterback Rocco Becht has time to find playmakers such as Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins for big downfield gains.

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Jaylin Noel establishes himself as the Cyclones’ most consistent big-play threat

Noel caught a 51-yard touchdown pass against the Sooners and Higgins later scored on a 67-yard strike — ISU’s longest play from scrimmage this season. That trend must continue if the Cyclones hope to finally find extended success and at least a semblance of balance offensively.

3. Back to zero

Turnovers and a blocked punt essentially gave Oklahoma 16 points in last week’s loss — and all of those miscues came early to help the Sooners open up an insurmountable lead.

ISU’s margin for error on both sides of the ball is vanishingly small and it simply cannot win if it turns the ball over more than the opposition. The Cyclones have slipped into a tie for 50th nationally in turnover margin and the losses will continue to pile up if that problem isn’t solved.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. TCU

The Horned Frogs are 0-2 in one-score games this season after winning a slew of them en route to being routed by Georgia in the national championship game last January.

The Cyclones’ mostly young defense stands at a crossroads after being torched by Oklahoma last week. How will they respond? Pretty well, I’d expect, based on Heacock’s track record. ISU’s offense does just enough to eke out an upset.

Iowa State 31, TCU 28