A Very Special (Election) Episode of 'Political Circus'

So I guess I've had my last Hy-Vee legislative update.

That's where I routinely ran into state Sen. Swati Dandekar, D-Marion. I'd be pondering potatoes or picking peppers, and there was my shopping senator, always happy to update a nosy journo-constituent.

Now, Dandekar is taking a seat on the Iowa Utilities Board. It's a powerful post and a fascinating job in a field where Dandekar has interest and expertise. She'll play a big role in setting energy policy. It's one of the best jobs in state government.

I know, some Democrats are unhappy Dandekar found Gov. Terry Branstad's offer too good to refuse. I know it's tempting to blame her for the tough spot they're now in. That's unfair, clearly, but I guess that's politics. Branstad got a high-quality nominee and a potential political payoff. You also can't blame him for taking advantage, although his adminsitration says he didn't think about the politics. Warning, suspending disbelief that much can cause bodily injury.

Now, Democrats are watching their precarious Senate majority flash before their eyes. A special election in District 18 on Nov. 8 will decide whether Democrats hold their 26-24 majority or if the Senate will be knotted 25-25.

And we, the voters in this swing district, will see a political circus roll in.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, declared over the weekend that “We are Wisconsin now,” comparing this special election to hotly contested legislative recalls in America's Dairyland. The nasty battle over union bargaining rights we've so far avoided in Iowa now may fire up in our backyard.

Groups backing a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage will see this as a chance to both gain one more Senate vote and embarrass Gronstal, their amendment-blocking archenemy.

We're hearing predictions that it will be the costliest state Senate race in Iowa history, with GOP presidential hopefuls eager for cameo roles in the biggest political story between now and the caucuses. Outside groups on both sides bearing plenty of bucks will flow into town. Expect the airwaves to ring with hyperbole.

But it is worth wondering how much this special election will really change.

A Republican victory would be a huge story and jolt of momentum for 2012. But the odds of Republican legislative priorities passing the Senate knotted at 25-25 really aren't all that much better than they are at 26-24. With split control, nothing moves without an OK from both parties. So divisive issues such as gay marriage will remain stuck. Democrats' influence on policy may be weakened, but not their ability to block bills.

Back in 2005-2006, when the Senate was 25-25, the parties agreed to an ellaborate power-sharing arangement with dual majority leaders, presiding officers and committee chairs. Shared responsibility did permit some hard-won accomplishments. But I'm not sure, at this moment of razor-sharp partisanship, whether such an agreement would even be possible.

Before any of that happens, there's the small matter of an election. I just hope we get a campaign about real ideas and issues that matter, such as tax reform and spending priorities, that's loud and clear enough to be heard over the circus.

And potential candidates are starting to line up ahead of party district conventions that will pick the final nominees.

The first is  Republican Mary Rathje. Radio Iowa's O.K. Henderson posted her announcement:

MARION, IA- Mary Rathje announced today her bid to seek the Republican nomination for the Iowa Senate District 18 Special Election.

Governor Branstad called for the Special Election after State Senator Swati Dandekar resigned to fill a position on the Iowa Utilities Board. The election is set for Tuesday, November 8, 2011.

Mary Rathje said today, “We need to complete the circle; employers want to grow and hire employees, parents want stronger schools and jobs to pay their mortgages, and graduates want job opportunities in Iowa to begin their careers. Working daily in a family owned business and raising kids in this community has provided me a strong perspective of the issues in the area. I am inspired by the opportunity to serve the people and am ready to take these ideas and concerns to Des Moines.”

The vacancy of the senate seat places the democrat majority in the Iowa Senate in jeopardy. With a republican victory it will place the power balance between the parties at 25-25.

Rathje continued, “I am not a career politician. I am proud to be an active member of the community and look forward to listening to the ideas and concerns of the district.”

Rathje is part of the 50-year old Marion based family business, Rathje Construction. She is a graduate of Linn-Mar High School and is celebrating her 40th wedding anniversary with husband Robert. They have two children and four grandchildren.

Senate District 18 covers all of the City of Marion, Fairfax, Palo, Hiawatha, Robbins, Alburnett, Center Point, Walker, Coggon, Prairieburg and part of Walford.