3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Michigan State

IOWA CITY — Whether George Perles, Nick Saban, Mark Dantonio or another coach was at the helm in East Lansing, Mich., Iowa-Michigan State has historically been one of the Hawkeyes’ most competitive conference matchups.

Overall, Iowa football has a narrow 24-22-2 all-time series lead over the Spartans. During the Ferentz era, it is knotted at 8-8.

There was the 16-13 Michigan State win in Indianapolis in 2015 to send the Spartans to the College Football Playoff while Iowa went on to the Rose Bowl. There were Iowa’s double-overtime wins in 2007 at Kinnick and 2012 in East Lansing. The Hawkeyes' nine-game winning streak in 2009 included a narrow, 15-13, win at Michigan State.

No team has won more than three consecutive games in the series since the early 1980s.

This year is unlikely to be one of the more competitive Iowa-Michigan State games over the years, though, as Iowa is a 12.5-point favorite.

Here are three keys and a score prediction for the Hawkeyes:

Can Iowa finally get the passing game going?

The Hawkeyes are coming off back-to-back games in which quarterback Cade McNamara completed less than half of his passes. The wide receivers’ lack of production through the first four games has been well-documented.

While Iowa is not as pass-dependent as some of its college football peers, it still is a concerning trend. When predecessor Spencer Petras completed fewer than half of his passes in the 2021 or ’22 seasons, the Hawkeyes were 2-5. The rest of the time, they were 16-4.

McNamara and his receivers should have some opportunities against Michigan State’s young defensive backs. Malik Spencer, Jaden Mangham and Dillon Tatum — all sophomores — have starting roles in the secondary.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 76.9 percent of passes to receivers Spencer has covered, per Pro Football Focus, with 11.8 yards allowed per reception. Opponents have picked on Spencer more than any other defensive back, but they also have completed 70 percent of passes against Tatum and 83.3 percent of passes against Mangham.

The Spartans allow a Big Ten-worst 7.8 passing yards per attempt through four games.

How effective is Iowa’s defensive front against Nate Carter?

Michigan State has experienced plenty of challenges, particularly over the last two weeks, but running back Nate Carter has been a bright spot offensively.

Carter has averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season. Even in Michigan State’s 31-9 loss to Maryland last week, Carter picked up 97 rushing yards on 19 carries and had five receptions for 23 receiving yards.

Iowa’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed 3.61 yards per carry through four games, which is tied for sixth in the conference. That is a downgrade from an FBS-best 2.83 yards allowed per carry last season, but still respectable.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Winning the turnover battle can be an evergreen point of emphasis for the Hawkeyes under Ferentz, but Saturday’s 31-0 loss to Penn State was a fresh reminder of why it is so important.

Iowa’s offense turned the ball over four times while the defense did not force any turnovers. (The first two turnovers set up Penn State’s only scoring drives of the first half.)

“I hope it’s an aberration,” Ferentz said of the turnovers on his weekly radio show. “Time will tell on that as well.”

Iowa is 8-1 since the start of the 2022 season when winning the turnover battle (compared to 3-5 in its other games), but is minus-four in the turnover margin so far this season.

“I know we need to do a better job with our ball security,” Ferentz said.

Prediction

Michigan State is a far cry from Penn State. As competitive as some past Iowa-Michigan State games have been, this should be a very winnable game for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa 20, Michigan State 6

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com