A Ron Paul Iowa win would show showing up still matters

If Iowa's caucuses are still, truly, a unique milepost on the road to the presidency, and not simply a rustic soundstage for a long Fox News infomercial, then a Ron Paul win on Jan. 3 should really be no big surprise.

I know there's a lot of angst about that prospect. It's risen to the level of panic, according to Politico. Some Republicans worry that a Paul win damages the caucuses' future relevance, and might even turn the race for the GOP nomination into a long, chaotic stagger.

Personally, I'm not exactly overjoyed with the rise of a candidate who seems to pine for the 50s, and by that, I mean the 1850s. Maybe you think taking a dull meat cleaver to the federal government and withdrawing from the world would solve all our problems. Count me as skeptical.

But win or lose, order or chaos, Paul has certainly campaigned far and wide in Iowa, before crowds big and small, over two caucus cycles. He's followed to old caucus playbook. Fresh polls show Paul is finally reaping all that sowing.

He is not the only hopeful who has spent a lot of time here, but at this point Paul is the hard-work-and-facetime-still-matters front-runner. He is ahead of or even with sluggish Mitt Romney, who is the electability-matters-most front-runner. Newt Gingrich, the debates-are-a-big-deal front-runner, is sliding fast. Neither Romney nor Gingrich have spent a lot of time here.

Paul has actually tried to both win over Iowa Republicans and offer a transcendent message to persuadable non-Republicans who might also show up Jan. 3. In a caucus campaign that has felt mostly like a contest to become grand poobah of an exclusive, ideologically pure, closed-door political club, Paul is seeking new supporters. A novel strategy that worked well here on the other side of the aisle for the guy in the White House.

I know, according to conventional wisdom, crisscrossing Iowa's cafe circuit is so over. Retail politics is dead. Iowa is a nice backdrop for a race that's really being molded by Fox News interviews, televised debates, the teapot tempests of the national news cycle and endless polling. Candidates can still win Iowa if they show up only occasionally, maybe give a nice talk in front of hay bales, do a debate or cattle call, and jet into the sunset. See ya soon. Maybe.

Would a victory by drop-by candidates like Romney or Gingrich be better for the caucuses' future than a Paul win? It depends.

If you believe that the old-school caucuses, where shoe leather and organization count, still have value in our superficial, super-sized American politics, a Newt Romney win could be disheartening.

If you're a Republican Party leader who is worried mostly about the continued health of a very lucrative political franchise, its media image and considerable fringe benefits, a Paul win might sting.  

I'm going to keep clinging to the notion that Iowa is still a place where voters get a rare, important chance to look a real live candidate in the eyes, and where showing up matters. But maybe I, too, pine for days that are long gone.