3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football at Ohio

Iowa State hits the road for the first time this season, traveling to Ohio for a game against the Bobcats.

Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. (CT) on FS1.

Here are three keys to victory.

1. Grinding defense

Ohio averaged 31.8 points per game last season despite mustering just 10 in a 33-point loss to ISU in Ames.

The Cyclones’ defense must continue to be stingy on Saturday in order for the offense to have a chance to fully find its footing for the first time this season.

One key: Interceptions. ISU safety Jeremiah Cooper is tied for the lead nationally with three picks in two games — and the Cyclones intercepted the Bobcats’ quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, twice in last season’s win. If ISU can force Ohio to be one-dimensional, more picks will likely come.

And Ohio ranks a middling 73rd in rushing offense this season, averaging 153.7 yards per game. ISU, meanwhile, has fielded a top-25 rushing defense the past two seasons and is allowing 109 yards per game in 2023.

2. Start fast

The Cyclones quickly extinguished the Bobcats’ hopes for an upset last season, bolting to a 30-3 halftime lead.

ISU scored on four of its first five possessions in that game and never felt threatened as it outgained Ohio 463 yards to 233 to run its record against the Bobcats to 8-0 all-time.

Last week the Cyclones saw a 15-play, 57-yard opening drive end in a blocked field goal — and any repeat of that would help Ohio nurture hopes for an upset on its home turf.

3. Go vertical

Ohio is tied for 18th nationally in opponent’s yards per pass attempt (5.0) but hasn’t faced an offense as talented as Iowa State’s, either.

The Cyclones’ redshirt freshman starting quarterback Rocco Becht slightly overthrew big-play wide receiver Jaylin Noel on a couple of deep balls against Northern Iowa in the season opener, but stretching the field against the Bobcats could help free up much-needed space in the running game. ISU’s top two tailbacks. Cartevious Norton and Abu Sama, have shined at times early this season and could turn any threat in the intermediate and deep passing game into an advantage.

Norton is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season. Sama — a true freshman from Southeast Polk — is averaging 4.6 yards per tote as his backup.

What’s at state for Iowa State at Ohio

A chance to enter the Big 12 season on the positive side of the win-loss ledger.

The Cyclones have been 2-1 or better after the conclusion of their nonconference slate six times in the past seven years — and five of those times they ended up winning seven games or more.

Ohio may have a veteran team replete with playmakers, but a loss to a MAC school would cast a pall over the nine-game conference schedule yet to come. Big 12 officials didn’t do ISU any favors on the scheduling front, either, as they’ll play five of those games on the road, including trips to league newcomers Cincinnati and BYU.

This game is simply the Cyclones’ easiest to win on paper from here on out. Recruiting momentum, good vibes about development around CyTown, hopes for a sixth winning season in the past seven years — all of that’s on the line in what linebacker Jacob Ellis rightly described as a “trap game” in Athens.

Iowa State at Ohio prediction

The early line probably made Cyclone fans nervous as the Bobcats opened as mere 1.5 underdogs. ISU had become 3.5-point favorites early this week, though, and I see a relatively comfortable win coming in Athens.

The Cyclones must be able to run the ball and limit turnovers while taking away the ball once or twice themselves. If that occurs, a tense game turns into a convincing triumph to help ease ISU into conference play with a winning record.

Iowa State 28, Ohio 13