3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against UNI

AMES — Iowa State hosts Northern Iowa on Saturday in a season-opener at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. (ESPN+).

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Make Theo Day’s job difficult

Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock described UNI quarterback Theo Day as “obviously an NFL guy” during Tuesday’s media availability and he meant it.

Day’s numbers last season — a 65 percent completion rate, 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions — were elite after a middling 2021 season. Expect Day’s profile to get brighter throughout his senior season, but Saturday he’ll run into another “NFL guy” in ISU cornerback T.J. Tampa. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound senior is squarely on NFL scouts’ radar and seeks to burnish his image even more in 2023.

Couple him with the reliable Myles Purchase at the other cornerback spot, along with skilled safeties such as Beau Freyler, Malik Verdon and Jeremiah Cooper, and Day’s Saturday could prove to be difficult as long as the Cyclones’ less experienced defensive line and linebacker positions conform to Heacock’s usual high standards.

2. Run it

It’s hard to overstate how bad ISU’s bottom-of-the-Big 12 running game was last season as injuries rippled through the room.

Struggles along the offensive line also made gaining any traction on the ground difficult, so it’s vital the Cyclones establish dominance at the point of attack early. As many as five running backs could play but the most experienced tailbacks, Cartevious Norton and Eli Sanders, look to be the most likely to earn primary ball carrier status.

They’ll try to pierce a Panther defensive front that features a handful of promising transfers such as Cartez Crook-Jones of Kansas State and Warren Peeples of Memphis as well as talented returnees such as Khristian Boyd. UNI gave up 153 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked fifth in the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

3. Ace the auditions

ISU head coach Matt Campbell said both of his top quarterbacks — redshirt freshman Rocco Becht and true freshman/early enrollee J.J. Kohl — will play against the Panthers.

Several running backs could play as well and multiple spots on offense and defense feature “ors” between the top few names. So the Cyclones seek to extend several stern competitions into at least the first week of the season, which ideally will develop depth and, as Campbell noted, allow the “cream to rise to the top.”

Becht’s and Kohl’s duel for playing time will be the most-watched, of course — and for good reason. Quarterback is obviously the key position for any football team and Campbell’s looking not only for production but leadership from his young play-callers. Both are former four-star recruits who showcase different strengths that could be complementary.

“Our kids have a deep belief in what’s going on at quarterback and I think we all do, too,” Campbell said.

What’s at stake for Iowa State vs. UNI

How about everything?

UNI always strides into Jack Trice Stadium ready to play and the Panthers are talented at a variety of positions. The Cyclones have lost two of the past six meetings with their in-state FCS rival and two of their last three wins have been decided by six points or fewer.

Forging a strong start will be critical if ISU hopes to ensure it won’t need to sweat out another close one against UNI. The Cyclones’ youth — nine freshmen appear on the two-deeps and three are slated to start — must immediately prove to be ready for prime time, even though the game will be played in the middle of the day on ESPN+.

If they struggle — especially at quarterback — losing to the Panthers for the first time since 2016 shifts from unlikely into the realm of distinct possibility. That sobering prospect should create a state of urgency for ISU’s veterans and newcomers alike.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. UNI

The Big 12 is replete with accomplished quarterbacks, but it’s likely Day will be one of the best play-callers the Cyclones face in 2023. Good thing for ISU that its secondary is stacked with talent — from Tampa to Freyler and beyond.

Iowa State 27, UNI 13.

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com