Steppe’s Stats: How much can Week 1 results foretell Iowa football’s full-season fate?

IOWA CITY — It practically “took a miracle” for the Iowa football team to beat FCS-level Northern Iowa in its 2009 season opener, as Kirk Ferentz remembers it.

“I don't think anybody that day would have predicted we were going to win the Orange Bowl that year,” Ferentz said.

But that’s exactly what Iowa did.

Then there are years like 2005, when the Hawkeyes won by 56 against FBS-level Ball State en route to a less exciting 7-5 season.

The 2005 and 2009 season openers are examples of a trend — or more like the lack of a trend — during the Ferentz era of Iowa football.

As easy as it can be to come up with grand conclusions about the 2023 season based on what happens at Kinnick on Saturday, data shows Iowa’s season openers historically have not been accurate forecasts of how the Hawkeyes would fare over the course of a full season.

It is especially the case in seasons where Iowa opens against a non-Power Five opponent — like Saturday’s opponent, Utah State.

Iowa has opened play against non-Power Five teams in 20 of Ferentz’s first 24 seasons. The margin of victory in those 20 games have had little bearing on how the rest of the season went.

The Hawkeyes went 100-53 (.654) in seasons where they defeated a non-Power Five team by 20-plus points in the season opener. When the Hawkeyes either lost or won by fewer than 20, they went 66-37 (.641) in those seasons.

Scoring trends

Scoring — a statistic that will be under a microscope with Brian Ferentz’s designated performance objective — has slightly more correlation between season-opening numbers and total-season numbers.

Iowa scored fewer than 17 points in four of Kirk Ferentz’s 24 season openers. Those four games — in 1999, 2000, 2007 and 2022 — preceded the four worst seasons from a scoring average standpoint in the Ferentz era.

At the same time, Iowa’s three season openers with more than 50 points led to two of the three highest season scoring averages in the Ferentz era.

But take out the two extremes, and there is virtually no correlation between scoring in the season opener and scoring across an entire season.

When the Hawkeyes scored 35-50 points in Week 1, their median season-long points per game has been 25.4. When the Hawkeyes scored 17-34 points in Week 1, the median points per game has been 28.2.

The 2004 Hawkeyes scored 39 against Kent State on their way to averaging 24.3 points per game. The 2015 Hawkeyes, on the other hand, scored 31 against Illinois State en route to averaging 30.9 points per game.

Iowa’s three season openers against Miami (Ohio) function as another case study.

When Iowa dumped 45 points on Miami in 2016, it went on to average 24.9 points per game. But when it scored only 21 points against Miami in 2003, it averaged a better 28.7 points per game. (The Hawkeyes’ 38 points against Miami in 2019 was in between with 25.8 points per game.)

Iowa’s defense similarly does not have a strong correlation between points allowed in Week 1 and points allowed in a season, with the exception of Iowa’s 42-7 loss to Nebraska in 1999 — Ferentz’s first season.

Iowa’s defense limited teams to fewer points in 2013 (18.9) after giving up 30 to Northern Illinois than it did in 2011 (23.8) after holding Tennessee Tech to seven points.

“It's a long season, and a lot of things can happen,” Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday. “There's a lot of twists and turns, and the more you realize that and just appreciate that, the better off you'll be.”

Iowa is a 24-point favorite, as of midday Wednesday, against the Aggies. But history suggests Saturday’s result — whether Iowa puts up a big victory like Las Vegas expects or walks away with an ugly win — will not necessarily be a reliable predictor of how the Hawkeyes will do in 2023.

“Whether you win a squeaker, lose a squeaker, get blown out or blow somebody out, it's one game and you have to move on,” Ferentz said. “But obviously it's more fun to win.”

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com